As the dust settles for the #ClimateAmbitionSummit, here is my deeper dive on Xi’s announcement (thread)

1) China has now increased all 4 of its NDC headline targets. The peaking & carbon intensity targets are arguable the most important and have only received modest enhancement. The non FF target is politically easier, it sends a positive market signal, but can/should be higher.

2) Taken together, these enhancements should ensure peak emission between 2026&2030. This would require extremely steep carbon reduction post 2030 to deliver 2060 carbon neutrality. It also risks letting polluting industries grow further over the next 5 years.

3) The statement also did not mention coal, both at the domestic front and along the #BRI. This is disappointing, although hardly surprising, as Xi is in no appetite to confront a powerful industry that helps prevent COVID’s worst economic impact.

4) Xi’s decision should also be viewed from the lens of domestic and intl politics. There, important to realize the challenging politics - powerful and provincial industrial push back, rock bottom US-China relations, lack of ambition from non-European major emitters, and etc.

5) In fact, if we go 4 months back, many people in Beijing simply wouldn’t believe China will move at all on its NDC. It’s hard to say what exactly changed Xi’s mind, but the need to improve China’s difficult intl image is certainly one consideration.

6) This makes intl reaction to China’s move all the more important. Communicating the imperative to do more while recognizing progress, so that it catalyzes further action, requires delicate balance, one that’s more difficult to achieve with growing intl frustration towards CHN

7) The world believes it has got that balance wrong in many other areas. Could climate be an exception or will it become the next victim? Sometimes patience is not completely unwarranted, but the challenge is climate urgency doesn’t grant us the luxury.

8) Re US-China, Xi’s move clearly leaves door open for future grand bargain. This is a complicated area. A lot has changed since Paris. What’s clear is neither is where they need to be - one is rhetorically there but not in practice, the other struggles with the partisan seesaw.

9) Re Five Year Plan, many thought more ambition will be there. I disagree. NDC is THE tone setting doc. FYP breaks it down to two 5 year periods. FYP is where u negotiate things down, not up. We need to make FYP as strong as possible, but this’s made more difficult by last night

Lastly, here is me holding the #ParisAgreement on Dec 12, 2015. That was the day that gave me hope and made me believe in the power of commitment and dedication. When the world is not on track with #1.5C, it is simply because we haven’t tried hard enough. END