[Thread]

Analysis & Further Questions Regarding Recent Hostilities Initiated by 🇦🇿

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The tri-lateral agreement pulls out Armenian forces from the Armenian-controlled areas, but it does not address Artsakh forces. By now, we know that the...
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... agreement is beyond vague. To that, the negatives are endless for the Republic of Armenia and its security regarding the territories lost. But, to Artsakh - this can be a tool used outside of OSCE to expand on Russian peacekeeper capabilities’ loop holes regarding action.
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I’d like to remind the audience that Artsakh still operates as a self-independent state without recognition. However, in contrast to prior Sept 27th, they’re working closer with 🇷🇺 in contrast to 🇦🇲. This is where I’d like to shift the attention from focusing on 🇦🇲 & Artsakh
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to focusing on 🇷🇺 & Artsakh. Reminder, Azerbaijan has made it clear both in OSCE and Tri-lateral negotiations that it will not recognize nor include the self-independent Artsakh as part of a negotiation piece. However, by not acknowledging Artsakh, and with 🇷🇺 taking place...
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... of 🇦🇲 as the security guarantor of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, Azerbaijan is now in direct confrontation with Artsakh and Russia. Not Armenia... which was basically the case before Dec 1st.

The only benefit to the vague agreement solidifying Russian peacekeepers in...
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... short term was to substitute 🇷🇺 in place of 🇦🇲 for legal matters that 🇦🇿 has itself agreed to without 🇹🇷. Which, in essence, by pulling out 🇦🇲 troops and replacing border-fluid 🇷🇺 troops, it creates a much more flexible region.

Why do I call 🇷🇺 Border-fluid? I’ll explain.
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Russian arrival to the skirmishes (hostilities or w/e you want to call it) this morning shows the 🇷🇺 ability to arrive outside of it’s true-lateral agreed borders after Dec 1st.

MFA of Azerbaijan, to my checking, did not give written response to this morning’s actions. Why?
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🇦🇿 would not announce reactions publicly since on-ground, Azerbaijan is dealing with 🇷🇺 & Artsakh — not 🇦🇲. And according to 🇦🇿 state rhetoric, Artsakh people are Azerbaijani CITIZENS. Needless to say, the political match has shifted since 🇦🇲 technically doesn’t control. 👀
9. What I am trying to say is, in order to first understand the immediate and constantly evolving actions taking place in Hin Tagher and Khtsaberd, let’s ask ourselves: what will retaliations be if Artsakh acts since it is not mentioned in the agreement, backed by 🇷🇺... 👀
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Questions: what will occur if Artsakh launches a counterattack, not Armenia. Artsakh. They are two separate states. And now that Artsakh is backed by Russia and excluded out of the agreement (while still being accepted by 🇫🇷🇺🇸 as short term solution) with 🇦🇿
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