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1/OK, so here's a thread about why I'm so excited about the revolution in solar+storage technology!
Energy tech might be uniquely capable of boosting PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH -- something other recent innovations haven't always been able to do! https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
Energy tech might be uniquely capable of boosting PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH -- something other recent innovations haven't always been able to do! https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
2/Remember when "the future" looked like this?
3/Around 1973, "the future" changed. We stopped innovating in physical technology ("atoms"), and started innovating in digital technology ("bits"). https://medium.com/@skanda_shastry/bits-vs-atom-b23b16ed52f3
4/Why did that happen? Why did innovation shift away from better appliances, faster transportation, etc.?
Reason 1: The prices of oil suddenly went way up, and became more volatile.
Reason 1: The prices of oil suddenly went way up, and became more volatile.
5/And reason 2: We didn't switch to nuclear.
(Let's not argue all day over whether we should have switched. The fact is, nobody was ever getting a fission-powered car.)
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/solar-is-libertarian-nuclear-is-statist.html
(Let's not argue all day over whether we should have switched. The fact is, nobody was ever getting a fission-powered car.)
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/04/solar-is-libertarian-nuclear-is-statist.html
6/When oil got expensive and we didn't switch to anything better, productivity growth collapsed.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=629592 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-16/how-1970s-oil-prices-stagflation-changed-the-u-s-economy?sref=R8NfLgwS
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=629592 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-16/how-1970s-oil-prices-stagflation-changed-the-u-s-economy?sref=R8NfLgwS
7/But after 10-15 years, productivity growth *somewhat* came back! Computers and IT drove the resurgence, which started in the late 80s and lasted through 2004.
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2003/september-193
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2003/september-193
8/BUT, then in 2005 and afterwards, productivity growth slowed down again, for reasons that are not yet well-understood.
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-08.pdf
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-08.pdf
9/My post discusses a number of hypotheses why "bits" innovation doesn't always drive fast productivity growth the way "atoms" innovation seems to.
Suffice it to say: We don't know exactly why. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
Suffice it to say: We don't know exactly why. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
10/Now, new A.I. innovation might drive another productivity boom! That might happen!
http://ide.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/2019-04JCurvebrief.final2_.pdf
http://ide.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/2019-04JCurvebrief.final2_.pdf
11/BUT, I'm much more excited about the productivity possibilities of ENERGY TECHNOLOGY.
Solar and storage are getting cheaper by leaps and bounds. This is a true technological revolution.
Solar and storage are getting cheaper by leaps and bounds. This is a true technological revolution.
12/And there's no end in sight for that revolution.
Solid-state batteries, for example, will be another game-changer when they arrive. https://www.wired.com/story/quantumscape-solid-state-battery/
Solid-state batteries, for example, will be another game-changer when they arrive. https://www.wired.com/story/quantumscape-solid-state-battery/
13/Not to mention next-generation solar cells. https://scitechdaily.com/cheap-renewable-energy-a-step-closer-as-next-generation-solar-cells-pass-strict-international-tests/
14/We all know that these technologies will make climate change easier to solve, helping us preserve our industrial civilization far into the future. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/climate-change-isnt-that-hard
15/But also, solar + storage will give us something that we haven't gotten in many decades:
A new, cheaper source of energy.
Cheap energy will change everything, just as the discovery of oil and coal changed everything (but with less environmental destruction).
A new, cheaper source of energy.
Cheap energy will change everything, just as the discovery of oil and coal changed everything (but with less environmental destruction).
16/What could cheap energy allow us to do?
How about LARGE-SCALE DESALINATION? Solve that fresh water crisis? https://news.mit.edu/2020/passive-solar-powered-water-desalination-0207
How about LARGE-SCALE DESALINATION? Solve that fresh water crisis? https://news.mit.edu/2020/passive-solar-powered-water-desalination-0207
17/How about BATTERY-POWERED PLANES?? https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2020/07/20/battery-electric-planes-cars/
18/How about cheaper everything??
19/And here's the thing -- energy technology might promote economic EQUALITY rather than economic inequality! https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-09/we-may-be-exactly-wrong-about-technology-and-inequality?sref=R8NfLgwS
20/Of course, remember that every technological revolution needs proper institutions to make it work for all of society.
21/But the revolution in energy technology promises to free us from the prospect of a stagnant, zero-sum world, where people believe that the only way to get rich is at their neighbors' expense.
Ultimately, THAT is what productivity growth is about.
Ultimately, THAT is what productivity growth is about.
22/Environmental preservation, sustainability, the potential for a more equal economy, a positive-sum world, and cheaper stuff for everyone: THAT IS THE FUTURE WE WANTED.
And it looks like we might finally get that future after all.
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
And it looks like we might finally get that future after all.
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-im-so-excited-about-solar-and
