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(1/15) As NY braces for more #COVID19 restrictions, let's understand why certain out-of-home activities are being restricted before others.
In particular, why restrict indoor dining and bars before salons and gyms?
Let's go to the #data.
In particular, why restrict indoor dining and bars before salons and gyms?
Let's go to the #data.
(2/15) This chart comes from data reported by @NYGovCuomo yesterday. The table presented by the governor is based on contact tracing. This sort of data is rarely published and is super valuable to making good science-based policies.
But, there's a problem...
But, there's a problem...
(3/15) Since this data is based on contact tracing, it relies on being able to identify a particular place as a probable location of transmission.
The result? It may overstate the relative importance of household transmission versus all other categories.
The result? It may overstate the relative importance of household transmission versus all other categories.
(4/15) You could imagine that bias coming from two main sources:
Source 1. Household transmission is MUCH easier to identify through contact tracing because you know the people you came into contact with at a residence...
Source 1. Household transmission is MUCH easier to identify through contact tracing because you know the people you came into contact with at a residence...
(5/15) Source 1 cont'd. Compared to other venues like bars, gyms, and salons, you might not know who else was in the room, so it makes linking transmission between two strangers is much more difficult for contact tracers.
(6/15) Source 2. People who stayed at home and got it from a household member may be more likely to cooperate with contact tracing because contracting COVID from a housemate might have less social stigma attached to it.
(7/15) As a result of these potential sources of bias in the numbers that the gov presented yesterday, you might assume that closing indoor dining will only reduce spread by a percent or two, seemingly too small to make a difference. In fact, this could make a huge difference.
(8/15) While it's difficult to know just how much spread is going on outside the home, it is clearly significant.
Moreover, we can account for about HALF of out-of-home transmission by looking at just 5 out of 28 categories.
Moreover, we can account for about HALF of out-of-home transmission by looking at just 5 out of 28 categories.
(9/15) Those five categories are:
1. Higher Ed Students;
2. Education Employees;
3. Restaurant/Bars;
4. Travel/Vacation;
5. Sports.
1. Higher Ed Students;
2. Education Employees;
3. Restaurant/Bars;
4. Travel/Vacation;
5. Sports.
(10/15) This is also helpful to understand relative risks @ school. Higher ed (colleges & universities) is in a league of its own and is very high risk.
On the other hand, K-12 is relatively much lower risk for students; though school employees represent the second highest risk
On the other hand, K-12 is relatively much lower risk for students; though school employees represent the second highest risk
(11/15) Finally, lots of attention has been paid to whether indoor dining is substantially riskier than other "non-essential" indoor activities, like gyms and salons.
Unfortunately, the data is clear: indoor dining and bars are MUCH riskier.
Unfortunately, the data is clear: indoor dining and bars are MUCH riskier.
(12/15) At 9.6% of out-of-home transmissions, indoor dining/bars represent:
- more than 20x the transmissions at gyms and arts/entertainment venues;
- 10x the transmissions at salons;
- 2x the transmissions at retail and religious activities.
- more than 20x the transmissions at gyms and arts/entertainment venues;
- 10x the transmissions at salons;
- 2x the transmissions at retail and religious activities.
(13/15) This higher transmission level isn't surprising because we know that #COVID19 transmits easily indoors, especially without masks and over long periods of time.
While most of these other venues can require masks, the fundamental nature of dining requires no mask.
While most of these other venues can require masks, the fundamental nature of dining requires no mask.
(14/15) Any economic restriction, but particularly those that hit small businesses and wage workers, will be painful. That pain should not be borne by these businesses and workers alone.
We all must support our neighbors as they bear the brunt of these restrictions.
We all must support our neighbors as they bear the brunt of these restrictions.
(15/15) While we can help a bit by ordering delivery and by buying gift certificates from restaurants and bars, Congress MUST ACT NOW to provide a substantial rescue package.
Our communities' health and economic future depends on swift action by Congress.
Our communities' health and economic future depends on swift action by Congress.
(PS) While you're here, please take a look at the other #COVID19 analysis and forecasts I've been working on with my research collaborator over at http://www.covidoutlook.info
Follow us: @covidoutlook
Follow us: @covidoutlook
PPS - This analysis excludes transmission from healthcare delivery. Please keep our healthcare workers in your thoughts as they put themselves at risk every day to care for the ill.
