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This paper includes an important - though unsurprising - finding:
The single biggest driver of number of applications submitted was how many applications *other* applicants were submitting.
Why does that matter, you say?
Let me explain.
(thread) https://twitter.com/doctoroblivious/status/1337763546340487170
The single biggest driver of number of applications submitted was how many applications *other* applicants were submitting.
Why does that matter, you say?
Let me explain.
(thread) https://twitter.com/doctoroblivious/status/1337763546340487170
Look, applicants are rational. They just want to Match, and they’ll apply to however many programs they need to accomplish that.
When they believe that the average applicant with credentials like theirs applies to X programs, they’ll apply to X + a few more... just to be safe.
When they believe that the average applicant with credentials like theirs applies to X programs, they’ll apply to X + a few more... just to be safe.
Because applicants are rational, they’re stuck in a Prisoner’s Dilemma. The only way to achieve their optimal outcome - and avoid their worst - is to apply to more programs than an otherwise identical applicant.
(Here, % = probability of going unmatched.)
(Here, % = probability of going unmatched.)
The only way out of this Prisoner’s Dilemma is to cap applications.
But if you don’t have the stomach for that, then we AT LEAST need to give students accurate figures on how many programs the “average” student is really applying to.
But if you don’t have the stomach for that, then we AT LEAST need to give students accurate figures on how many programs the “average” student is really applying to.
You’ve probably seen these data before.
The AAMC publicizes the mean number of applications that applicants submit in each specialty each year.
Here are the numbers for this year.
(n.b., the bars include only U.S. MD applicants, not IMGs or DOs.)
The AAMC publicizes the mean number of applications that applicants submit in each specialty each year.
Here are the numbers for this year.
(n.b., the bars include only U.S. MD applicants, not IMGs or DOs.)
Why does the AAMC publicize the mean - not the median?
After all, the distribution of applications submitted isn’t normal. It’s skewed by outliers who submit an extremely high number of applications.
After all, the distribution of applications submitted isn’t normal. It’s skewed by outliers who submit an extremely high number of applications.
For instance, from this study, ~25% of U.S. graduates applying in internal medicine applied to <15 programs - but around 5% applied to >70. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29355512/
By publicizing the mean, we normalize overapplication.
And once some applicants overapply, others have to overapply just to keep up. (This is the reason toilet paper disappeared from the shelves in the spring - once one person hoards, we all have to.) https://thesheriffofsodium.com/2020/04/07/on-toilet-paper-and-application-caps/
And once some applicants overapply, others have to overapply just to keep up. (This is the reason toilet paper disappeared from the shelves in the spring - once one person hoards, we all have to.) https://thesheriffofsodium.com/2020/04/07/on-toilet-paper-and-application-caps/
So why would the AAMC report the mean instead of more informative statistics?
Well...
Did I mention that the AAMC sponsors ERAS?
Or that ERAS is their biggest revenue stream?
Well...
Did I mention that the AAMC sponsors ERAS?
Or that ERAS is their biggest revenue stream?
Even their Apply Smart for Residency analyses are likely to result in an overall increase in applications submitted.
For a comprehensive overview of why, check out my lecture here:
For a comprehensive overview of why, check out my lecture here:
If this rubs you the wrong way - let the @AAMCtoday know.
It would take their analysts 60 seconds to report the median/interquartile range... but they’re not gonna do it without some encouragement.
It would take their analysts 60 seconds to report the median/interquartile range... but they’re not gonna do it without some encouragement.
