NEW POll

One year on from the General Election, and the largest* to be conducted to date.

Headline voting intention:
Con 40
Lab 38
LD 6
Green 4

Total sample is 6949 UK Adults, fieldwork 27 Nov-8 Dec.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/12/keir-starmer-winning-over-tory-leave-voters-to-labour-poll
*Unless I am forgetting something, excludes BES

The larger sample size also allows us to break the data down more granularly, and have more trust in the data from each of the cross breaks.

All the following numbers compare the breakdown on this poll with the breakdown from our poll on election day last year.

The most important thing is that we are seeing a bigger swing to Labour among Leave voters than Remain voters.

However, this is more caused by Leave voters going off the Tories than being won over to Labour.

Conservative retention is much higher among their Remain voters (78%) than their Leave voters (70%).

Defection to Labour is similar among both groups though, with the difference made up by Con Leaver moving to don't know.

It also isn't *really* true to say that Labour are only winning over Lib Dems and Greens, and not Tories.

If you look at net movement (number of voters won over, minus the number of votes going other way) Labour has gained roughly half a million votes from the Tories.

This is roughly the same as the number of the net movement to Labour from the Greens and Lib Dems combined.

This has changed over the past few weeks though, partly caused by Labour defections to the Greens over the Corbyn stuff.