(1/5) @FT's second attempt to push a much too simplified narrative that Chinese policy banks are now lending less overseas, based on @BU_Tweets's porous dataset. https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6

(2/5) Boston University dataset estimates China’s total lending to Central Asia at $19.3 billion for 2008-2019; but it is at least $41 billion, according to my unpublished database. @futurerisks and I explained more in this article https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/chinas-policy-banks-are-lending-differently-not-less/

(3/5) BU’s dataset took a geospatial approach focusing on biodiversity and indigenous lands. Loans without a location are omitted. This means ignoring multimillion dollar loans issued for non-greenfield investments, such as China’s 2010 $10 billion loan to Kazakhstan’s SWF.

(4/5) BU’s approach also failed to capture the trend that Chinese policy bank are loaning directly to Chinese SOEs who are conducting Belt and Road projects.

(5/5) More importantly, Chinese banks have gone global in past few years, thus loans no longer confined to bilateral agreements. CDB and BOC in Kazakhstan for example provide many loans locally without going through Beijing.