This comment gets a bit of traction but I think it's misguided or severely misunderstands how EU operates and exerts power. Obviously, on the 1st glance it makes perfectly sense, Frost acted according to his mandate & got relatively close to fulfil it. @KeohaneDan /1 https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1337510191584178176

But as with all things, context matters - a lot. EU exerts power through economic strengths. It's one thing to say "We got the contract we want." but a quite other thing "We can deal with the direct and indirect consequences of this contract and control the outcome.". /2

EU's red lines are strategically positioned: They make it (de facto) impossible to take advantage of divergence, w/ or w/o no deal. With no deal b/c the non tariff barriers will offset any potential gains (& even if not yet, trust me, EU & member states will make sure of it). /3

And with a deal, the inability to regulatory diverge competitively in a meaningful way is even in writing. So UK will face a situation in which it is disadvantaged either way which provides EU more and more leeway. /4

Support against Scottish secessionist? That doesn't come for free. You want better trading conditions to stabilise an eroding budget (you know, the "magic money tree" financing military toys and NHS or triple locks for pensions)? Again, that will cost you. /5

That's the point where state capacity comes into play: Do whatever you want but you need to be able (as in have the capacity) to deal w/ it, see @APHClarkson . For a reason unknow to me commenters seem to assume that state capacity stays in the way it was few years ago. /6

Or even worse, they assume it will increase over time b/c UK's electorate wants it so. That doesn't work like that, in particular not if you are dependent on your overgrown neighbours in almost all relevant dimensions. /7

In a way some Brexiteers were right, Brexit's success is determined whether there is a EU or not. Well, if you ignore that a unrestricted Germany and France may be even more unpleasant neighbours if they are unrestricted and on their own. /8

So if you look at the consequences of the whether there is a deal or no deal, there is no success plainly b/c none of it is likely to matter much in the medium and long term (maybe not even in the short term). EU get what it wants either way. Resistance is futile so to speak. /9

At this point it's rather a question of the way it gets it and how UK looks like when it arrives at the final destination. Lots of ways lead to Rome but some of them are more pleasant than others. Brexit is like a black hole, when UK legally left it crossed the event horizon. /10

And with this it means regardless what it wants and where it intends to move, there is really just one direction and one destination. The negotiations only determines how you will look when arriving and not where you arrive, so where is the success here? 11/11