Read on Twitter
“It has not taken long for the wheels to come off the Belt & Road Initiative. As recently as May 2017... #Xi Jinping stood in Beijing before a hall of nearly 30 heads of state & delegates from >130 countries & proclaimed ‘a project of the century’.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BRI
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BRI
“ #China has promised to spend ~$1tn on building [ #BRI] infrastructure in mainly developing countries around the world—& finance almost all of this through its own financial institutions. Adjusted for inflation, this total was ~7X what the US spent through the #MarshallPlan....”
“But according to data published this week, reality is deviating sharply from Mr #Xi’s script. What was conceived as the world’s biggest development program is unravelling into what could become #China’s 1st overseas #debt #crisis.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BeltAndRoadInitiative
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BeltAndRoadInitiative
“Lending by the #Chinese #financial #institutions that drive the Belt & Road, along with bilateral support to governments, has fallen off a cliff, & Beijing finds itself mired in #debt #renegotiations with a host of countries.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BRI
#BeltAndRoadToNowhere
https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
#BRI
#BeltAndRoadToNowhere
“ #China’s rethink betrays a tacit recognition that its overseas lending bonanza has been ill-conceived. Photos from the 2017 B&R Forum for Int'l Cooperation—the venue at which.. #Xi declared his ‘project of the century’ ambition—hint at what would become the program’s fatal flaw.”
“Alongside...Xi in...portraits were the authoritarian leaders of countries w/ big debts & ‘junk’ #credit ratings. #Debt sustainability—or the ability of debtor countries to repay their loans—had to be part of any reassessment of the Belt & Road Initiative, says @KevinPGallagher”
“The propensity for #China’s credit-fuelled engagement of diplo allies to come unstuck is most spectacularly portrayed by #Venezuela. [2007-13] #ChinaDevelopmentBank lent Venezuela nearly $40B... Chávez...characterised as 'a #GreatWall' vs US hegemonism.” https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6
“Much of the lending to #Venezuela was tied to #oil resources, but even before... #Chávez died in 2013 it was clear that things were going awry. Yet Beijing was in so deep that it felt compelled to keep supporting Nicolás #Maduro...even after...ineffectual econ mgt became clear.”
#BIGPICTURE— #MYTAKE w/ Gabe Collins @CES_Baker_Inst @BakerInstitute @RiceUniversity:
Beijing seeks to use largesse to create dependence. Transactional approach is only as strong as the hard power underwriting the latest financial incentives it dispenses.
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/1e07d836/ces-pub-asiapacific-111120.pdf
Beijing seeks to use largesse to create dependence. Transactional approach is only as strong as the hard power underwriting the latest financial incentives it dispenses.
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/1e07d836/ces-pub-asiapacific-111120.pdf
#PRC approach to world now centers on extremely narrow self-interest, fundamentally transactional & left unchecked could leave many regional states subjugated as quasi-vassals. Some parts of this approach are specific CCP
pathologies, while others reify antiquated imperial views.
pathologies, while others reify antiquated imperial views.
Chinese statesman Chang Chu-cheng captured this sentiment well in the 16th century, saying of #China’s neighbors that “Just like dogs, if they wag their tails, bones will be thrown to them; if they bark wildly, they will be beaten with sticks...” [CONT'D] https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-the-line-through-2035-a-strategy-to-offset-chinas-revisionist-actions-and-sustain-a-rules-based/
“...after the beating, if they submit again, bones will be thrown to them again; after the bones, if they bark again, then more beating.”
FOR QUOTATION, READ THIS GREAT ARTICLE:
@profLind, “Life in China’s Asia,” @ForeignAffairs 97.2 (March/April 2018), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/life-chinas-asia.
FOR QUOTATION, READ THIS GREAT ARTICLE:
@profLind, “Life in China’s Asia,” @ForeignAffairs 97.2 (March/April 2018), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/life-chinas-asia.
#BRI & other transactional sources of #PRC #influence could evaporate rapidly if #China’s underlying power growth slows, domestic demands proliferate & funds for purchasing influence abroad dissipate accordingly.
Indeed, PRC faces #headwinds & #slowdown:
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-the-line-through-2035-a-strategy-to-offset-chinas-revisionist-actions-and-sustain-a-rules-based/
Indeed, PRC faces #headwinds & #slowdown:
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-the-line-through-2035-a-strategy-to-offset-chinas-revisionist-actions-and-sustain-a-rules-based/
#TheBottomLine:
Dystopian future of #PRC:
1) peevish imperiousness reigning supreme,
2) coercively enveloping #Taiwan,
3) subjugating neighbors &
4) subverting global #rules/institutions/system...
—should be avoided.
—can be avoided.
Here’s why & how: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-the-line-through-2035-a-strategy-to-offset-chinas-revisionist-actions-and-sustain-a-rules-based/
Dystopian future of #PRC:
1) peevish imperiousness reigning supreme,
2) coercively enveloping #Taiwan,
3) subjugating neighbors &
4) subverting global #rules/institutions/system...
—should be avoided.
—can be avoided.
Here’s why & how: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-the-line-through-2035-a-strategy-to-offset-chinas-revisionist-actions-and-sustain-a-rules-based/
