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1/ https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-existential-crisis-rule-of-law-hungary-poland/
This article contains a lot of true statements - and still is fundamentally mistaken and wrong.
Thread.
This article contains a lot of true statements - and still is fundamentally mistaken and wrong.
Thread.
2/
The article takes autocracy in the East as a given, like an irresistable natural force, and thus establishes the false choice of accepting an autocratic East or giving up the EU as a project unifying the European Continent.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
The article takes autocracy in the East as a given, like an irresistable natural force, and thus establishes the false choice of accepting an autocratic East or giving up the EU as a project unifying the European Continent.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
3/
For one: we can see with our bare eyes that it is precisely the EU's inaction, the constant vacillation that is tearing it apart, by ever appeasing an actor whose hunger can never be satisfied.
For one: we can see with our bare eyes that it is precisely the EU's inaction, the constant vacillation that is tearing it apart, by ever appeasing an actor whose hunger can never be satisfied.
4/
If Orban & Kaczynski were so far for many decision makers in the West an ugly but ultimately insignificant stain on the EU's vest, now they threatened with sweeping destruction for the entire block.
Why would and could they do that in the first place?
If Orban & Kaczynski were so far for many decision makers in the West an ugly but ultimately insignificant stain on the EU's vest, now they threatened with sweeping destruction for the entire block.
Why would and could they do that in the first place?
5/
Two reasons:
1. Because they had reason to believe that the EU is so vary of confrontation that aggression will work (which it did)
2. Because they fortified their power by undemocratic means so strongly as to allow them going against their *own population's opinion*.
Two reasons:
1. Because they had reason to believe that the EU is so vary of confrontation that aggression will work (which it did)
2. Because they fortified their power by undemocratic means so strongly as to allow them going against their *own population's opinion*.
6/
Both are intimately related to the EU's conduct.
See, these guys woundn't nearly be so firmly in power, if the EU hadn't turned a blind eye in them destroying democratic institutions and hadn't financed the build-up of illiberal systems by allowing the misuse of EU-funds.
Both are intimately related to the EU's conduct.
See, these guys woundn't nearly be so firmly in power, if the EU hadn't turned a blind eye in them destroying democratic institutions and hadn't financed the build-up of illiberal systems by allowing the misuse of EU-funds.
7/
Second key point: the notion that stepping up against autocrats and autocracies would result in Polexit and Huxit is - I'm sorry - an absolute joke.
Second key point: the notion that stepping up against autocrats and autocracies would result in Polexit and Huxit is - I'm sorry - an absolute joke.
8/
It pains me to say that especially out of German mouths, this point sounds like a very convenient excuse to mask the fact that CDU/CSU has a strategic alliance with Orban, based on German business interests, and thus Germany is simply not interested in pressuring Orban.
It pains me to say that especially out of German mouths, this point sounds like a very convenient excuse to mask the fact that CDU/CSU has a strategic alliance with Orban, based on German business interests, and thus Germany is simply not interested in pressuring Orban.
9/
Fact is, in Hungary, pro-EU sentiment is reportedly at its highest ever, 85%. And it has always been above 50% since accession. The accession referendum in 2003 btw resulted in 84% positive votes *even though* just the left wing campaigned for 'yes' (fidesz didn't).
Fact is, in Hungary, pro-EU sentiment is reportedly at its highest ever, 85%. And it has always been above 50% since accession. The accession referendum in 2003 btw resulted in 84% positive votes *even though* just the left wing campaigned for 'yes' (fidesz didn't).
10/
One of the very few strong & shared dispositions within the Hungarian electorate - firmly rooted in painful historic memory - is that EU-membership is not just beneficial but outright obligatory.
One of the very few strong & shared dispositions within the Hungarian electorate - firmly rooted in painful historic memory - is that EU-membership is not just beneficial but outright obligatory.
11/
If Orban tried to bring Hungary out of the EU, it would lead to his downfall, and quickly at that.
And it's not "only" politics and voters: the Hungarian economy is living off its trade with the EU (exporting products manufactured by EU-firms in Hungary) and EU-grants.
If Orban tried to bring Hungary out of the EU, it would lead to his downfall, and quickly at that.
And it's not "only" politics and voters: the Hungarian economy is living off its trade with the EU (exporting products manufactured by EU-firms in Hungary) and EU-grants.
12/
Without these, there simply is no Hungarian economy.
Therefore, Huxit is the emptiest threat of all time and if any actor uses it to justify appeasement, it can only be so because he/or she actually desires Orban be left alone.
Without these, there simply is no Hungarian economy.
Therefore, Huxit is the emptiest threat of all time and if any actor uses it to justify appeasement, it can only be so because he/or she actually desires Orban be left alone.
13/
What the EU should have done long ago, is confront autocratic ambitions head-on, protect institutions - and thereby political competition as such - by all means, and prevent EU funds' laundering for purpose of regime-building.
What the EU should have done long ago, is confront autocratic ambitions head-on, protect institutions - and thereby political competition as such - by all means, and prevent EU funds' laundering for purpose of regime-building.
14/
If it had done so, Orban wouldn't be less viscious, but he would still be an ordinary firebrand leader subject to checks and balances, unable to steal EUR-billions from Hungarian and European taxpayers as he does today.
If it had done so, Orban wouldn't be less viscious, but he would still be an ordinary firebrand leader subject to checks and balances, unable to steal EUR-billions from Hungarian and European taxpayers as he does today.
15/
Then, he would neither have the motivation, nor the means to blackmail the EU on RoL.
You'd have a far-from-faultless but functioning democracy, as before 2010; and it would be possible to vote him out.
No-one would think of a united Europe or EU with values dichotomy.
Then, he would neither have the motivation, nor the means to blackmail the EU on RoL.
You'd have a far-from-faultless but functioning democracy, as before 2010; and it would be possible to vote him out.
No-one would think of a united Europe or EU with values dichotomy.
16/
If the EU ever starts doing its job and enforcing the Treaties, it will not lead to Huxit but to Orban's downfall, after which you'll have a left wing that *is* democratic and a post-fidesz right wing that has learned from Orban's fate and behaves much less aggressively.
If the EU ever starts doing its job and enforcing the Treaties, it will not lead to Huxit but to Orban's downfall, after which you'll have a left wing that *is* democratic and a post-fidesz right wing that has learned from Orban's fate and behaves much less aggressively.
17/
*That* will be an EU that has both geography and values.
Thing is, it lies in the nature of appeasement of a certain kind of politician, that you can postpone confrontation for a long time, but you can't avoid it forever.
*That* will be an EU that has both geography and values.
Thing is, it lies in the nature of appeasement of a certain kind of politician, that you can postpone confrontation for a long time, but you can't avoid it forever.
18/
As the article describes, the EU and its MSs have, for a whole decade, tried to ignore away the autocratic monster growing in their backyard - we now saw what this led to.
Before making endless, and ever greater sacrifices, maybe one should finally face it.
END
As the article describes, the EU and its MSs have, for a whole decade, tried to ignore away the autocratic monster growing in their backyard - we now saw what this led to.
Before making endless, and ever greater sacrifices, maybe one should finally face it.
END
