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I'm going to try to unpack this thread because it just reads very strange to me. I'm not going to fact check all of @RaoulGMI's numbers but going to give some spontaneous thoughts on what he's written, feel free to correct me where I'm wrong (= we all learn something). https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230345897390088
First comparison:
> Comparing bitcoin to the size of the global government bond market
Seems like a somewhat fair thing to do, I don't have a major issue with this. A hard money asset used as "pristine collateral" could indeed siphon materially from that value pool.
> Comparing bitcoin to the size of the global government bond market
Seems like a somewhat fair thing to do, I don't have a major issue with this. A hard money asset used as "pristine collateral" could indeed siphon materially from that value pool.
> $23tn global custody system accruing to BTC
What type of services are we talking about here? Custodian fees? Asset servicing? Are we saying these trillions should accrue to BTC because custodian fees will become tx fees paid to miners => BTC demand? https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230346774048768
What type of services are we talking about here? Custodian fees? Asset servicing? Are we saying these trillions should accrue to BTC because custodian fees will become tx fees paid to miners => BTC demand? https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230346774048768
In reality I don't think bitcoin will absolve the need for custody (there are already bitcoin custodians today, Coinbase/Fidelity/BitGo etc & more will come). And for self-custody without storage fees, I don't think that value necessarily will accrue anywhere (that's good!).
One of the goals with bitcoin is to replace middlemen & if the custody industry is exceedingly expensive, ideally bitcoin releases some of that value back into the economy. A big chunk of it will stay where it is though, as not all custody services can be solved by a blockchain.
I'm guessing Raoul says it's "more likely" that "ETH" captures this value because Ethereum has a greater chance of becoming a settlement network for other types of assets (e.g. stocks) and it's more likely to be able to support a broader range of asset servicing functions.
I think the whole idea of thinking that you can translate custody fees to ETH or BTC demand because of network fees is strange. Also it doesn't take into consideration what will happen when most of this is done on L2s.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230347810066433
Is this talking about how much value is settled globally in total everywhere? I don't see how this number is interesting in relation to anything. Blockchains charge fees based on computational load or packet size, not the value being transfered.
Is this talking about how much value is settled globally in total everywhere? I don't see how this number is interesting in relation to anything. Blockchains charge fees based on computational load or packet size, not the value being transfered.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230348695064577
Is this talking about the notional value of derivatives globally? Also, what does that have to do with anything? That's not value that needs to accrue anywhere. Derivatives' notional value is not an asset, you can't "long" the open interest on the CME.
Is this talking about the notional value of derivatives globally? Also, what does that have to do with anything? That's not value that needs to accrue anywhere. Derivatives' notional value is not an asset, you can't "long" the open interest on the CME.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230349466820614
Again, the total value traded or settled in a transaction isn't relevant to anything, the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks don't charge transaction fees based on that. As far as some DEXes do, those fees go to token holders or LPs, not the native asset ETH.
Again, the total value traded or settled in a transaction isn't relevant to anything, the Bitcoin and Ethereum networks don't charge transaction fees based on that. As far as some DEXes do, those fees go to token holders or LPs, not the native asset ETH.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230350259515395
Same as before.
> XRP
FFS. No, XRP is never going to be the "bridge currency" between FX transactions. No, not even after Apple merges with Ripple creating "Rapple".
Same as before.
> XRP
FFS. No, XRP is never going to be the "bridge currency" between FX transactions. No, not even after Apple merges with Ripple creating "Rapple".
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230351043883008
I don't see why the entire debt market has to translate into BTC or ETH value. If anything, a return to hard money should shrink the debt market unless we fuck everything up completely. Happy to hear others' thoughts on what the thinking is here.
I don't see why the entire debt market has to translate into BTC or ETH value. If anything, a return to hard money should shrink the debt market unless we fuck everything up completely. Happy to hear others' thoughts on what the thinking is here.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230351903698950
It just sounds stupid to say "that is probably ETH". No, those are different assets. Their value doesn't translate into ETH value even if they get tokenized on Ethereum, just like Tether doesn't inflate the ETH market cap. Unless we're talking fees again?
It just sounds stupid to say "that is probably ETH". No, those are different assets. Their value doesn't translate into ETH value even if they get tokenized on Ethereum, just like Tether doesn't inflate the ETH market cap. Unless we're talking fees again?
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230352851595266
How much wealth is there in the world? Credit Suisse has global household wealth at $400tn. Gold is ~$10tn. Global money is ~$40tn/~$100tn (depending on narrow/broad definition). A "few of hundred trillion" in supply chains?
How much wealth is there in the world? Credit Suisse has global household wealth at $400tn. Gold is ~$10tn. Global money is ~$40tn/~$100tn (depending on narrow/broad definition). A "few of hundred trillion" in supply chains?
@RaoulGMI, are you talking about the assets that are being transferred *within* supply chains now? How is this value "EOS"... ?! Makes no sense.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230355632443392
Sure, indeed, there'll be other digital assets outside of just BTC. But you've listed: "ETH, EOS, XRP" as if they were proxies for all of that in this thread. That's why your thread is so confusing.
Sure, indeed, there'll be other digital assets outside of just BTC. But you've listed: "ETH, EOS, XRP" as if they were proxies for all of that in this thread. That's why your thread is so confusing.
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230357595369475
This final conclusion just seems off. The big value pools cryptocurrencies can siphon from is gold, money, and certain money-like instruments like maybe Treasury bills ($10T+100T). After that, it starts to siphon other SoV premiums from equities--
This final conclusion just seems off. The big value pools cryptocurrencies can siphon from is gold, money, and certain money-like instruments like maybe Treasury bills ($10T+100T). After that, it starts to siphon other SoV premiums from equities--
--real estate, art and all other things people buy to preserve their purchasing power over time. $200tn total is not unreasonable. But the way you've described this process seems to miss the mark completely.
(tokenized real estate "is probably ETH") wut? https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230351903698950
(tokenized real estate "is probably ETH") wut? https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1337230351903698950
