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Among the main near-term foreign policy decisions facing the Biden admin after Jan 20 is what to do about Afghanistan ( https://www.vox.com/21726445/iran-north-korea-russia-afghanistan-joe-biden-foreign-policy). This thread summarizes policy proposals I am coming across for the admin: 1/n
Ruger and Menon say it is time to withdraw the remaining troops irrespective of the situation on the ground. 2/n https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/17/william-ruger-rajan-menon-withdraw-us-troops-afghanistan/
Carter Malkasian says there are only two real policy options: complete withdrawal by May or keeping 2500 troops in place indefinitely. He argues a complete withdrawal is more compelling. 3/n https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/23/joe-biden-is-heading-dead-end-afghanistan/
Ayotte, Dunford, and Lindborg say don't withdraw abruptly. 4/n https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/afghanistan-troop-withdrawal-trump-peace/2020/11/25/4f1f6b98-2f5d-11eb-860d-f7999599cbc2_story.html
Biddle says avoid further unilateral drawdowns in the absence of a settlement. 5/n https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20201120/111095/HMTG-116-AS00-Wstate-BiddleS-20201120.pdf
Crocker says the "ill-considered and highly dangerous troop withdrawal should be suspended, as should any further concessions in this disastrous negotiation with the Taliban." 6/n https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20201120/111095/HMTG-116-AS00-Wstate-CrockerR-20201120-U1.pdf
Jones says the US should keep "several thousand U.S. military forces" in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future until the Taliban concede more in intra-Afghan. 7/n https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS00/20201120/111095/HMTG-116-AS00-Wstate-JonesS-20201120.pdf
Cordesman says "the U.S. must not stay in a divided Afghanistan, stay in spite of the warnings
about just how dismal this government is." 8/n https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201201_Cordesman_Biden_Transition.pdf
about just how dismal this government is." 8/n https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201201_Cordesman_Biden_Transition.pdf
NYT editorial board says try regional diplomacy, keep current level of troops for foreseeable future. 9/n https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/30/opinion/afghanistan-withdrawal-biden.html
Rubin says reduce tensions with Iran and China in general, & leverage that for--among other things--Afghanistan. Also, use engagements with Iran & China to get the support of India & Pak for a settlement. Meanwhile, stick to the withdrawal timetable. 10/n https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-12-09/there-only-one-way-out-afghanistan
Smith says "...we finally have a chance to get the parties to accomplish, to actually sit down and resolve [the conflict with talks]. But that won't happen if we pull our troops out by May of next year..." 11/n https://www.usip.org/index.php/publications/2020/12/scott-smith-us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan
Mulroy says surge to 4500 troops. 12/n https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-trump-administrations-potential-last-minute-middle-east-policy-moves
Stavridis says surge to 5000 troops, suspend withdrawal until Taliban implement a cease-fire agreement for at least 180 days, and keep Khalilzad as special envoy. 13/n https://time.com/5919070/afghanistan-how-end-war/
Barndollar and Long say withdraw as swiftly as possible because "Each passing month increases the odds that the small U.S. force remaining in Afghanistan eventually departs in real haste..." 14/n https://www.wsj.com/articles/now-is-as-good-a-time-as-any-for-the-u-s-to-quit-afghanistan-11607643116
Worden says “United States can still achieve a good outcome in Afghanistan if it applies pressure where it is needed and predicates troop withdrawal on results rather than timelines.” 15/n https://www.usip.org/index.php/publications/2020/11/afghanistan-withdrawal-should-be-based-conditions-not-timelines
Ackerman says Biden should reframe what ending Afghanistan war means by declaring it has ended *and* still keep troops to sustain the “tenuous peace.” Says this is possible because troops in Afghanistan “have remained relatively safe in recent years.” 16/n https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/17/opinion/afghanistan-war-biden.html
Schroden argues Biden admin should pause “timeline for completing [US troop] withdrawal”, calibrate costs against Taliban for violating Doha pact, finalize CT posture outside AFG, & reform Afghan security forces by reducing their cost & complexity. 17/n https://www.lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-will-be-biden-administrations-first-foreign-policy-crisis
Allen and O'Hanlon say Biden should reverse Trump's recent troop cuts and then stay the course until an acceptable intra-Afghan outcome is obtained as the current "level of the American presence and effort in Afghanistan are now sustainable." 18/n https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/12/21/sorting-out-afghanistan-take-time-under-biden-column/3928731001/
Malley says Biden "may want to condition the withdrawal on progress in [intra-Afghan] talks." 19/n https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2021
Afzal argues for conditioning full US troop withdrawal on the achievement of an intra-Afghan deal. 20/n https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/10/13/america-should-stay-in-afghanistan-until-an-intra-afghan-deal-is-reached-not-forever/
Rubin says Biden admin should forge int'l, regional, and Afghan consensus to delay the May 2021 withdrawal by a one-time, six-month adjustment, and withdraw at the end of adjusted period (Nov 2021?) regardless of the outcome of intra-Afghan talks. 21/n https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2021/01/11/biden-can-bring-troops-home-from-afghanistan-the-right-way
Felbab-Brown says Biden admin shud assess involvement in AFG in a global strategic framework with clarity on the impact on US strategic priorities; doing so "significantly, and appropriately, reduces the otherwise inflated importance of Afghanistan." 22/n https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/01/12/us-policy-toward-afghanistan-consider-the-trade-offs-including-with-other-policy-areas/?preview_id=1344600
Roggio says US must maintain military presence in AFG, "designate [Pak] as a state sponsor of terror...to compel [it] to end its support for the Taliban", partner with India, & not "negotiate with the Taliban without...success on the battlefield." 23/n https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward-america-does-not-have-to-choose-defeat-in-afghanistan
Kristian says Biden should "improve on Trump’s record" by meeting or hastening Trump’s late spring 2021 withdrawal deadline as "it could be touted as a show of unity with Trump followers", shouldn't expand air war, & be more realistic on diplomacy. 24/n https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-12-29/afghanistan-u-s-troops-withdrawal-donald-trump-joe-biden-taliban
Cunningham, Llorens, Neumann, Olson, & Wayne say Biden should pause withdrawal for policy review; also not withdraw until Taliban meet commitments on al-Qaeda, & tell Pak relations hinge on getting Taliban to reduce violence, negotiate in good faith 25/n https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-way-forward-in-afghanistan-how-biden-can-achieve-sustainable-peace-and-us-security/
Miller says Biden must seek a six-month extension on the May 1 troop withdrawal deadline — as intra-Afghan talks are unlikely to survive a near-term US withdrawal — and work swiftly to develop CT options for operations in Afghanistan from outside. 26/n https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-01-22/myth-responsible-withdrawal-afghanistan
DePetris says Biden should continue to execute Trump's withdrawal by May 21 plan, which will force Afghanistan's neighbors to take full ownership of the conflict as it "affects their security far more than it affects the security of the U.S." 27/n https://www.stripes.com/opinion/biden-should-use-afghanistan-exit-plan-he-inherited-1.659506
