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The MD Board of Revenue Estimates (Comptroller, Treasurer, Budget Sec) released updated budget projections today. The chat is below showing current year and the next two yrs of fiscal predictions. /1
A major theme from the analyst is the disparate nature of the economic fall-out of COVID-19. Many white collar wrkrs, big box stores, construction stores, and others are doing okay or better. Many service industry wrkrs, restaurants, and other small biz are really suffering. /2
The net impact to MD's revenue picture is relatively positive. With the stock market doing as well as it is, capital gains projections are up. With business troubles, corporate income tax projections are down. /3
Interestingly, sales tax is up significantly partly because of a shift to goods--which we tax--away from services people are currently avoiding, that we don't. Online sales tax growth is also, not surprisingly, up. /4
The analyst emphasized that COVID-19 projections are even more uncertain than usual. For example, the current projections don't assume another federal stimulus bill, but hopefully it will happen. /5
In any event, currently budgeted items--to say nothing of additional human needs 4 rental assistance, healthcare, broadband expansion, transit investment, and more--still outstrip revenues as currently projected. But not by as much as expected when prior projections were made. /6
From here, the leg's Spending Affordability Committee meets and sets overall spending guidelines. The Guv continues to prepare/submit a proposed budget the leg will work on in Jan. New revenue estimates come in March and we will then finalize a budget to take effect next summer/7
