Some quick thoughts on the rule of conditionality mechanism - where we are now and whither all this is heading ... a thread @rumeliobserver @PiotrBuras1 @ProfPech

Those lamenting that that the "compromise" on the rule of law mechanism will delay or deny its use against Hungary are lamenting a chimera. It wasn't going to be used against it any time soon anyway. But Poland?

The compromise does not change anything relevant: as the hardline Ziobro recognised: “If the regulation, combining the budget with ideology enters into force, it will be a significant limitation of Poland’s sovereignty".

It might be slightly delayed, but likely not materially. Undermining the independence of national courts clearly weakens guarantees that the use of EU funds will be subject to proper domestic scrutiny. The political declaration does not change this.

So this was not a "victory" for Hungary, as Varga claimed - for it changed nothing for them. And it was not a victory for Poland - as the question is still the same:

Will states be willing to trigger sanctions if (when) the Court of Justice finds that the independence of the Polish judiciary has been compromised in breach of EU law and if (when) Poland declines to abide the ruling?

For this is - and always was - where all this is heading. The EU now has a mechanism that it can use to significantly strengthen the imposable fines for rule of law violations that breach EU law. This is good.

Will they use it? I think they will. Will the fines be sufficiently severe? less sure. But it is important that this is the overall narrative. Poland has not won. Far from it - the day of reckoning is still coming.

This is what the Polish government needs to feel and its public see. This is what the Commission and member states must be steeled for.

(Reprise: even if all this happens it will still be messy: Poland will offer a bit of this, a bit of that ... the Commission & states will have to 1. understand it all & 2. decide how insistent they want to be ... it wont be clean or perfect, but it will be much better than now