Texas replied to SCOTUS today.The original filing used fallacious stats to allege fraud in four states.The reply makes the same allegations, using the same tests. But if we apply the absurd test to another close state we find "evidence" of “improbable” pro-Trump ballot patterns. https://twitter.com/justingrimmer/status/1336448639862902784

The reply is here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163493/20201211095822921_TX-v-State-LeaveReply-2020-12-11.pdf The expert, Charles Cicchetti, submits a supplemental declaration (pg 31).He defends his original analysis, where he assumes early and late-tabulated votes have identical Trump support rates and then calculates the chance of the results

Fine, let’s suppose his test works: what does it say about AZ? There, Biden had a large early-tabulation lead and late-counted votes broke towards Trump. Would Cicchetti claim this is improbable and indicative of pro-Trump fraud?

I used Cicchetti’s method and compared votes tabulated by 5pm on Wednesday to the certified total. In AZ, Trump outperformed Biden in the late-tabulated vote, just like Biden outperformed Trump in GA, MI, WI, and PA.

Under Cicchetti’s absurd assumptions, the z-score for this difference would be 119.895: even more unlikely than the cartoonish probabilities he discusses. But of course, this isn’t evidence of pro-Trump fraud. Different ballots were counted at different times.

Cicchetti’s new brief goes on to argue that Biden’s improved performance in urban areas is difficult to explain, because Biden overperformed Clinton in these cities, even though Biden’s overall urban vote was down.

This is not an ``unusual fact pattern”. It is a sleight of hand. Biden, in fact, outperformed Clinton in a large number of metro areas ( https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/11/20/fact-check-biden-outperformed-clinton-most-major-metro-areas/6349084002/).

Cicchetti’s brief uses fallacious statistical reasoning to argue that patterns are suspicious. Not only is it bad stats, it is corrosive to public trust in our democratic institutions. Frankly, I find it disgusting.