Unlike some, I don't expect the Stock Exchange to fall off a cliff when No Deal is official. Fall, yes, but not hugely.

Here's why:

No Deal isn't permanent - the UK will immediately begin looking for a deal. But it will do so from a position of desperation and distrust...

When, in January, we rock up at the door of the EU asking to continue negotiating (and believe me, we will), the Stock Exchange will suddenly find it has HUGE power.

It can say (some already have) that it's moving to Frankfurt unless the UK gives it something in that deal...

That "something" will be lower taxes, less regulation, etc. Unless we give in, financial services - which is close to 10% of our GDP - will walk.

Then we'll have lost ~5% to Covid, ~6% to No Deal, and another 10% of financial services.

20%, of which 15% is permanent. Ouch...

So once we've "taken back control" from the "unelected EU", we will immediately lose far more control to unelected bankers.

And they know it. Cos they're not as thick as the govt.

So banks won't panic at No Deal as much as some suspect. They'll rub their hands with glee...

The markets will take a hit, but it won't be huge, and I doubt it'll be sustained. There is still plenty of money to be made from a weak country with a feeble government, unable to resist taking whatever shit deal is on offer.

You and I will lose. Banks won't.

2nd reason it won't move much is: the Stock Exchange is global. And the UK really isn't that important. We're 1.8% of global GDP.

The EU (18% of global GDP) is far more important, and the EU is unchanged. Nations which trade with EU will just bypass us. We aren't significant.