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(THREAD) Islamic State in east Africa has really battled to take off. In Somalia, between Al-Shabaab, Somali forces and US air strikes, ISS remains quite weak compared to its counterparts in other regions. Kenya and Tanzania have maintained considerable pressure on IS
cells, more so because the former simply can’t afford to take on anything more than what it’s already been facing with Al-Shabaab. Tanzania has always been prepared for whatever fallout came from Kenya, leaving Mozambique a really viable option when push came to shove. Literally.
In the span of about 5 years we’ve seen 3 (ISS, JEA, ASwJ) variants of IS ‘franchising’ along the east coast with the latest holding the most promise, in large part due to the geo strategic advantage of having built an expansive network northwards into east Africa and along the
coast. If there’s any lesson ASwJ will take from Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the chief propagator/inspiration of jihad on the east coast (having also trained members of the group), is to exploit porous borders and poor maritime security, drawing in recruits, weapons, strategic and
ideological inspiration. The next stage for ASwJ is its institutionalisation: a process in which an insurgent group begins to adopt particular acts of brutality, operational tactics, a more apparent organisational structure, brand etc. in preparation for (but sometimes shortly
after) a formal affiliation. ASwJ’s proven ability to maintain control of territory, will play an important part in this stage as we may very well cross into 2021 with the group still holding on to MdP...and for however long into next year.
In the absence of a rival jihadist
In the absence of a rival jihadist
group, AFRICOM, and a laser focused government response to terror threats, ASwJ is set to be the most formidable IS affiliate on the east coast.
We’re in some serious trouble if that hasn’t been made clear already.
We’re in some serious trouble if that hasn’t been made clear already.
