Covid 19’s seasonal and temperature sensitivity~a thread
This thread is quite long and will take a while to get to the crux of the matter but please stick with me.
So let's begin…...

~Now as many of you have probably noticed Covid is seasonal,or at least it looks like it is.
Even if you havent noticed that you may have seen this:
There seems to a moment where a regions outbreak explodes for seemingly no reason…..even in regions which have handled it well.

…..Such as Norway
Norway was doing so well but then the cases suddenly exploded
As shown by this excellent chart from Worldometers

~There seems to be a moment when cases go from this steady increase here in Austria….

~To this rapid increase

~Or another way of looking at it
The percentage increase or decrease of the seven day average week on week

~So what is causing this?
And how can an outbreak pop up in one region but other regions be completely fine?
It makes no sense
Well it doesn't when you try to explain it through normal means
To explain this well have to take a look at Austria's climate
Heres a graph

~Now you're probably thinking that the connection here is that people spent more time
indoors infecting each other which is how the flu spreads in the winter
Well you're making a crucial mistake
Why?

~ Because the coronavirus is ~not~ the flu
….and assuming it acts like the flu always ends in tears
Because the flu is a influenza type virus and Covid 19 is a coronavirus
So unsurprisingly they act differently
So what's really going on here?

~Well the viruses structure appears to change at temperatures under ten degrees and over 26-28 degrees making it more infectious
It can hang in the air longer and is generally more dangerous which is most likely what is happening in Austria

~This effect is not isolated to Austria either
Here's the same chart but with Germany and Sweden added on

~And here's the temperature charts for germany and sweden
This year Germany’s temperature was also on the lower average,going beneath 10 degrees in october.

~The same thing is happening in these countries
If it did transmit like the flu it would not have affected colder countries like norway and sweden as the people there aren't going to huddle indoors at a temperature just under ten degrees.

~And America is affected by it too
These are the average temperature across the states in the winter

~And here is the current number of cases per 100k people from the CDC:

~There is a fairly obvious correlation
It's not perfect as some states have better compliance to rules and some have no restrictions but most importantly it is there.

~And now the question of how can one region on a continent have huge case numbers but another not seems rather easy to answer doesn't it?
In the spring New York was hit hard while California,Texas,and Florida werent and people wondered why that happened.

~Well the answer is temperature
New York had very cold temperatures in February and March,well beneath 10 degrees while the warmer states of Texas and Florida barely got under 12 degrees.
In the same way we can explain why Texas and Florida were hit in the summer.

~Both Texas and Florida were above 28 degrees which is the second temperature range which covid loves while the midwest and northeast of the US as well as Europe were not hot enough to be in the second temperature range of above 26 degrees where covid spreads very fast.

~You can see the temperature chart for the summer here

~And the same correlation is seen in cases though it isn’t perfect due to reasons I stated before:

~So from these examples we can see that Covid if affected by the temperature in the regions it is in and temperatures below 10 degrees and above 26 degrees cause it to be more infectious.

~I'm going to end this thread now as it's getting very long
I will however post another thread later on the temperature's effect on Britain's epidemic.
Spoiler:We are about to be hit by it.
~End of thread