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THREAD: Why it's time to sell DCL and buy Bamford With difficult fixtures ahead for a Digne-less Everton, should DCL owners keep the faith? A brief statistical analysis of Leeds' new tactical switch and Bamford's run of form suggests they shouldn't...
DISCLAIMER: I've owned DCL from GW3 until this week. He's been phenomenal this year: he’s consistent, a capable finisher and, like Bamford, is the focal point of a very productive attack. I fully expect to bring DCL back in later in the year.
This thread is not an attack on DCL.
This thread is not an attack on DCL.
Form is one of the primary motivations for selling DCL, more specifically Everton's form.
Only SHU have less points than EVE in their last 6 games and what’s more, they’re without Digne, an unfortunate loss for DCL owners; DCL misses Digne's quality of crosses...
Only SHU have less points than EVE in their last 6 games and what’s more, they’re without Digne, an unfortunate loss for DCL owners; DCL misses Digne's quality of crosses...
In the 4 games where Digne has been absent, EVE have won one point, they've scored twice and conceded nine.
DCL averages 4.25 ppg in those games (17 in 4)
In the remaining seven games where Digne has played, EVE have 13 points.
DCL averages 8.7 ppg in those games (61 in 7)
DCL averages 4.25 ppg in those games (17 in 4)
In the remaining seven games where Digne has played, EVE have 13 points.
DCL averages 8.7 ppg in those games (61 in 7)
Ancelotti has also introduced a 3-4-3 in their last 3 outings, a subtle change from their previously effective 4-3-3.
Whilst this tactic hasn't nullified DCL, he and EVE have been quieter going forward. This is worrying considering they've travelled to FUL, BUR and hosted LEE.
Whilst this tactic hasn't nullified DCL, he and EVE have been quieter going forward. This is worrying considering they've travelled to FUL, BUR and hosted LEE.
In EVE's 3 games in the 3-4-3:
•Combined xG of 4.9
•45 shots
DCL's personal performances in the 3-4-3:
•xG of 2.1
•11 shots and 3 goals
•143 touches
•21 points inc. 3 bp
•Combined xG of 4.9
•45 shots
DCL's personal performances in the 3-4-3:
•xG of 2.1
•11 shots and 3 goals
•143 touches
•21 points inc. 3 bp
But how do these numbers compare to Bamford in Leeds' recently preferred 4-4-1-1?
In LEE's 3 games in the 4-4-1-1:
•xG of 7.9 vs AVL, EVE, CHE
•61 shots
Bamford's personal performances in the 4-4-1-1:
•xG of 3.7
•19 shots and 4 goals
•44 touches
•12 ppg inc. 2 bp
In LEE's 3 games in the 4-4-1-1:
•xG of 7.9 vs AVL, EVE, CHE
•61 shots
Bamford's personal performances in the 4-4-1-1:
•xG of 3.7
•19 shots and 4 goals
•44 touches
•12 ppg inc. 2 bp
From these stats we know that DCL is far more involved in EVE's build up. Bamford is more of a poacher but in LEE's system he is more of a goal threat than DCL.
With Digne out, it's certainly worth assessing DCL's supporting cast compare to Bamford's in their respective tactics.
With Digne out, it's certainly worth assessing DCL's supporting cast compare to Bamford's in their respective tactics.
Richarlison, Hamez, Iwobi are the main creators for Everton in the 3-4-3.
Combined xA p90 = 0.7
Combined key passes p90 = 5.7
Raphinha, Harrison, Klich are the main creators for Leeds in the 4-4-1-1.
Combined xA p90 = 0.87
Combined key passes p90 = 7.3
Combined xA p90 = 0.7
Combined key passes p90 = 5.7
Raphinha, Harrison, Klich are the main creators for Leeds in the 4-4-1-1.
Combined xA p90 = 0.87
Combined key passes p90 = 7.3
Although statistically sound, Bamford's home form is an area of worry right now:
Home: 5 apps 1G 1A, xGp90 of 0.66, 1.7 SoT from 3.6 shots p90
Away: 6 apps 7G 0A, xGp90 of 0.86, 1.94 SoT from 6.35 shots p90
Home: 5 apps 1G 1A, xGp90 of 0.66, 1.7 SoT from 3.6 shots p90
Away: 6 apps 7G 0A, xGp90 of 0.86, 1.94 SoT from 6.35 shots p90
That said, these home games were against FUL, MCI, WOL, LEI, ARS who have an average away xGAp90 of 1.48
His home stats rank him 2nd in npxGp90 (0.01 less than DCL), 3rd for SoTp90 and 6th for Sp90 in the league.
His away stats rank him 1st, 2nd and 1st respectively
His home stats rank him 2nd in npxGp90 (0.01 less than DCL), 3rd for SoTp90 and 6th for Sp90 in the league.
His away stats rank him 1st, 2nd and 1st respectively
The future of both players look bright, but their upcoming opposition differs greatly.
LEE face: WHU (H), NEW (H), MUN (A), BUR (H), WBA (A)
Combined xGA p90 (depending on home and away) = 1.5. Only the three promoted sides and winless SHU have a worse xGAp90 than 1.5
LEE face: WHU (H), NEW (H), MUN (A), BUR (H), WBA (A)
Combined xGA p90 (depending on home and away) = 1.5. Only the three promoted sides and winless SHU have a worse xGAp90 than 1.5
Everton face a far trickier run.
EVE face: CHE (H), LEI (A), ARS (H), SHU (A), MCI (H)
Combined xGA p90 (depending on home and away) = 1.2. That would be the 5th best xG defence in the league.
Could this tough run be the beginning of another long, barren spell for DCL?
EVE face: CHE (H), LEI (A), ARS (H), SHU (A), MCI (H)
Combined xGA p90 (depending on home and away) = 1.2. That would be the 5th best xG defence in the league.
Could this tough run be the beginning of another long, barren spell for DCL?
All in all, DCL and Bamford are both superb assets. Few would've predicted such impressive seasons from them both.
But with the money saved between the 8.0m of DCL and 6.2m Bamford could the economical and statistical benefits be enough for you to make the switch.
But with the money saved between the 8.0m of DCL and 6.2m Bamford could the economical and statistical benefits be enough for you to make the switch.
The views in the thread are personal and we hope the research in this thread helps you in some way.
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Cheers!
We're only a small account so RTs and Likes go a long way. Let us know if you agree with our thoughts in the comments.
Cheers!
