1) Could a Government Shutdown Loom Tonight?

Well, here we are. Government funding expires at 11:59:59 pm et tonight. And the Senate has yet to align with the House to approve a week-long, stopgap spending package.

2) If the government shuts down tonight, this is a problem which frankly snuck up on everyone at the Capitol. But it is a distinct possibility. 

The problem is that the sides have yet to finish funding on a broader, omnibus spending pkg to fund the government through next Sept

3) And until that is resolved, Congress must turn to parliamentary putty and grout to keep the government lights on: A Continuing Resolution or “CR.” Such a bill funds the government for a short timeframe at present spending levels.

4) The House approved the initial version of the interim, bill Wednesday. But the Senate is trapped in a procedural cul-de-sac over the annual defense bill.

5) The Senate needs an agreement of all 100 senators (called unanimous consent) to step on the gas, wrap up the defense bill and then move to the Band-Aid spending plan.

6) However, if the Senate were forced to do the interim spending bill by the book, it could take days just to advance that plan.

So, here’s where we stand:

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) opposes language in the defense bill which could slow troop withdrawals in Afghanistan.

7) The Senate has the votes to overcome Paul’s blockade. But, without Paul’s consent, the Senate can’t step on the gas and bypass the objections of the Kentucky Republican. So, the Senate is left to do things by the book on the defense bill.

8) That means a procedural vote, requiring 60 yeas, to end debate on the defense bill. That vote will come at 10:30 am et today. Once the Senate votes to end debate, a 30 hour clock begins running. That means Paul can incinerate the next 30 hours without doing much of anything.

9) Once 30 hours expire, the Senate could then vote on the defense bill (which President Trump has threatened to veto, by the way). 

That scenario, by the book, obviously gets us into a government shutdown.

10) Only then could the Senate then consider the interim spending bill. And, again, if the Senate did it by the book, hurtling the procedural hurdles and passing the CR would take days itself.

11) On that score, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) hasn’t said whether he would allow the Senate to expedite consideration of the CR to fund the government. He’s pushing for adoption of a plan to send direct payment checks totaling $1,200 to most Americans.

12) When asked if he may follow in Paul’s footsteps and block rapid consideration of the stopgap bill, Sanders said he would “play it by ear.”

Now...to be clear....

This is a genuine problem facing the Senate and the federal government today.

13) You could have a government shutdown, if only for a few hours or the weekend, in the middle of a pandemic.

Things can take forever in the Senate. But, if the Senate gets an agreement - known as “unanimous consent” or “UC” - things can move at startling speed.

14) You can make the sun rise in the west if you get a unanimous consent agreement in the Senate. That may be the only way out of this trap. We’ll have to see just how dug in the sides are here. 

Oh. And by the way, talks on a coronavirus relief package are stalled

15) This means it’s another macabre Christmas at the Capitol.