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#EUCO climate details to come but initially there’s two things to take from this summit, one positive and one less so:
+ it’s “at least” 55%. That gives negotiators leeway to *maybe* go further. MEPs voted for 60% and several member states back it too. This gives the Comm political fuel to run the numbers on more than 55%. When? It’s anyone’s guess;
- it’s “net” emissions. That lops off a few percentage points because we’re not going to be cutting emissions before theyre produced but absorbing them afterwards. Can this be altered by co-legislators now it’s explicitly mentioned in conclusions? Seems unlikely
• Qualified majority is in play when it leaves EUCO. Where will the EP and greener MS choose their battle? In the headline target or in the details. Wisdom (and science, arguably) say it should be the latter;
• Messing with the 55% could trigger some MS to refer it back to EUCO, where the process stalls once more. And what is even the purpose of a target? It is important but only as good as the measures underpinning it;
• So the EP could fight for “net” to change. This would likely need the Comm to run the numbers again. Not impossible but would be time-consuming;
• There are also other tidbits: an independent climate council - underreported I’d say - would give regular updates about whether the EU is on climate track. Similar to @theCCCuk. If they get that, 55%+ could come sooner rather than later;
• Also there’s the 2040 target up for grabs and talks over a carbon budget. Plenty of action left, this #EUCO decision was really only a pit stop to take on fuel early in the race
Here are the climate #EUCO conclusions in full:
“...the right of the Member States to decide on their energy mix and to choose the most appropriate technologies to achieve collectively the 2030 climate target, including transitional technologies such as gas” <- the wording Poland etc fought for
Effort Sharing Regulation will be discussed at #EUCO before Commission issues a review proposal next year. There’ll be a fight there for sure;
Modernisation Fund, as reported by others, will also be in the mix;
So there we go. Over to co-legislators to put some meat on these bones
Confirmation from EU official that Modernisation Fund & ETS issues were sticking points in the all-night talks. The main price of a deal appears to be EUCO reserving a role for itself in the upcoming climate wrangling. There'll be a return to climate policy in first half of 2021
