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A short thread on the rising number of #COVID19 deaths in British Columbia, and what is reasonable to expect in the weeks ahead.
Apologies in advance for the grim nature of this type of discussion.
Apologies in advance for the grim nature of this type of discussion.
B.C. has seen 303 #COVID19 deaths in the last month.
That's more than the entire pandemic before November 10, and the trendline has been gradually accelerating week after week.
That's more than the entire pandemic before November 10, and the trendline has been gradually accelerating week after week.
What does this mean in terms of the weekly death comparison charts?
B.C. still fares comparatively well, because of how low deaths were for so many months.
On a weekly basis though, B.C. is regularly above a number of European countries, Ontario, and is around a few states.
B.C. still fares comparatively well, because of how low deaths were for so many months.
On a weekly basis though, B.C. is regularly above a number of European countries, Ontario, and is around a few states.
What does the short term look like?
The hospitalization chart is generally a decent indicator, factoring in a 1-2 week lag time.
It appears for the moment like B.C. has plateaued, which is good.
But that would still means a week or two more before deaths started to go down.
The hospitalization chart is generally a decent indicator, factoring in a 1-2 week lag time.
It appears for the moment like B.C. has plateaued, which is good.
But that would still means a week or two more before deaths started to go down.
Today was a particularly sad day in B.C.
28 #COVID19 deaths, significantly higher than the 12-18 a day we had been seeing for a few weeks.
As always when we only have one piece of data, we can't say whether that's the beginning of a new trend, or an aberration.
However...
28 #COVID19 deaths, significantly higher than the 12-18 a day we had been seeing for a few weeks.
As always when we only have one piece of data, we can't say whether that's the beginning of a new trend, or an aberration.
However...
Around two-thirds of deaths have generally come from long-term care and assisted living facilities.
But unlike the first wave of the pandemic, the government isn't providing the number of cases in those homes.
Hospitals *could* be plateauing, while care home cases still rise.
But unlike the first wave of the pandemic, the government isn't providing the number of cases in those homes.
Hospitals *could* be plateauing, while care home cases still rise.
At the same time, vaccines are being given to care home workers first.
And that's happening next week!
(honestly, what an amazing sentence that is to type)
The fact vaccines will go first to the most vulnerable could quickly have a significant impact on deaths.
And that's happening next week!
(honestly, what an amazing sentence that is to type)
The fact vaccines will go first to the most vulnerable could quickly have a significant impact on deaths.
What does all this mean?
- It's reasonable to suspect deaths could slowly rise for a couple more weeks
- A large spike is unlikely given province-wide conditions, but hard to rule out
- Vaccinations should have a big effect, but the exact timeline is very unknown
- It's reasonable to suspect deaths could slowly rise for a couple more weeks
- A large spike is unlikely given province-wide conditions, but hard to rule out
- Vaccinations should have a big effect, but the exact timeline is very unknown
A January to March in British Columbia where deaths are quite low from vaccinating the vulnerable, overall cases are steadily declining, restrictions are less onerous, and we can all see light at the end of the tunnel is a very plausible scenario.
Still takes hard work though.
Still takes hard work though.
