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"While the world was distracted by the drama of the U.S. election, Xi quietly unveiled an economic strategy fit for a new Cold War."
My first @NoemaMag essay on "dual circulation" — China's deeply pessimistic vision of future decoupling [1] https://www.noemamag.com/chinas-radical-new-vision-of-globalization/
My first @NoemaMag essay on "dual circulation" — China's deeply pessimistic vision of future decoupling [1] https://www.noemamag.com/chinas-radical-new-vision-of-globalization/
The main point: lots of discussion of a changed Western consensus on China, giving up on political liberalization in Beijing. But there is much less focus on the lessons China learned from Trump's presidency — and "dual circulation" is the result. [2] https://www.noemamag.com/chinas-radical-new-vision-of-globalization/
At best dual circulation is a strategy based on the expectation, probably accurate, that the US and its friends will now work much harder to deny China the technology it needs to grow.
But as this quote shows, there are even more gloomy ways to read it:
[3]
![At best dual circulation is a strategy based on the expectation, probably accurate, that the US and its friends will now work much harder to deny China the technology it needs to grow. But as this quote shows, there are even more gloomy ways to read it: [3]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eo6-VYnU0AAzGky.jpg "At best dual circulation is a strategy based on the expectation, probably accurate, that the US and its friends will now work much harder to deny China the technology it needs to grow. But as this quote shows, there are even more gloomy ways to read it: [3]")
But as this quote shows, there are even more gloomy ways to read it:
[3]
The more i looked at it the more i agreed with @MacaesBruno that "dual circulation" was not some kind of minor "old wine in new bottles" kind of rebranding.
It is a big change in China's development outlook, and in many ways a troubling one. [4] https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/xi-jinping-and-dual-circulation
It is a big change in China's development outlook, and in many ways a troubling one. [4] https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/xi-jinping-and-dual-circulation
My conclusion: "Dual circulation suggests Trump’s tenure has been more influential than his critics would admit. He lost America’s election, but he convinced Chinese elites that the US is now irrevocably set on blocking China’s technological rise." [5/5] https://www.noemamag.com/chinas-radical-new-vision-of-globalization/
