1) Montreal posted a 7% #COVID19 testing positivity rate on Thursday, 2.1% higher than New York City’s rate. Montreal also reported a record 648 cases, 90 more than Toronto. In this thread, I will focus on the rapidly deteriorating situation in the metropolis.

2) Dr. Mylène Drouin, head of Montreal’s public health department, noted the #coronavirus's reproduction rate is 1.37, signalling that the incidence of #COVID19 will rise in the coming days. She also finally acknowledged school-aged children are driving transmission of the virus.

3) But it may be what Drouin didn’t say that’s more alarming: The city’s seven-day-rolling average of #COVID19 cases reached 25.56 per 100,000 residents, the threshold Harvard University experts have recommended as warranting a general lockdown in the #pandemic.

4) Both New York City and Boston closed their public schools temporarily when their #COVID19 positivity rates increased significantly, helping to contain the spread of the #coronavirus. Montreal, on the other hand, has kept its schools open despite more and more outbreaks.

5) On Monday, a group of 75 public-health and other experts recommended the government activate a “circuit-breaker” lockdown to help prevent more deaths in long-term care centres. But Premier François Legault said Thursday he still wants to wait to see how things evolve.

6) The number of people hospitalized for #COVID19 has climbed to 279 in Montreal. That might not seem like a huge figure to some, but hospitalizations have been increasing steadily and will continue to do so, given Thursday’s one-day spike of 648 infections.

7) In two weeks’ time, a percentage of the 648 infections reported Thursday will turn into hospitalizations, and a week or so later, a smaller number will be declared as deaths. This will all likely happen right before the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021.

8) In the meantime, fewer health care workers (HCWs) are caring for #COVID19 patients. At present, 334 Montreal HCWs are infected and absent, and another 450 are at home waiting for their test results. That’s on top of more than 800 nurses who have quit during the #pandemic.

9) At least four nurses in the emergency room of the Lakeshore General Hospital have contracted the #coronavirus amid chronic ER overcrowding. The chart below conveys the extent to which this is a problem not only in Montreal but across Quebec, a dangerous risk in the #pandemic.

10) Since end of the first wave of #COVID19 fatalities at the beginning of July, more than 1,800 Quebecers have perished. This second wave of fatalities is more than three times the death toll (564) in South Korea (population: 51.6 million) since the start of the #pandemic.

11) In the absence of rapid testing, tracing and isolation (as has been the case in South Korea), the only effective tool Quebec has to fight this latest #COVID19 surge is a short-term lockdown. As I’ve asked before in this thread, what’s Quebec waiting for? End of thread.