A thread that you can refer to next time someone claims that the pandemic is over in Sweden, based on recent death figures that appear to be dropping in the last couple of weeks. (Spoiler: They always appear to be dropping in the last couple of weeks.) /1

Here are Sweden's daily death numbers as they stood (in the ECDC dataset) on 19 and 26 November, and 3 and 10 December. Note how they are always dropping off on the right. Is the pandemic over? Er, no. /2

Sweden reports new cases and deaths 4 days a week (Tue-Fri). On Tue there are 4 days worth of data. But there are no big weekly spikes (or days with zero) in the daily numbers. Why? /3

Because deaths are tabulated on the day that the person died, and it can take two weeks for the information to make it into the system. So on 10 December, the only deaths you will see for 10 December are those that took place the same day and were reported very quickly. /4

Let's look closely at the numbers of death recorded as having occurred on 1 December (red line). On the left, in the data that were released on 3 December, there are 26 deaths for 1 December. On the right, in the data from 10 December, there are 47 deaths for 1 December. /5

I would bet money that this time next week, that number will be above 60, as news of more deaths that occurred on 1 December trickles in. /6

Sweden is currently announcing 60-90 new deaths per day -- more than last week and the week before. But on Worldometer you will only see a fraction of that --- 21 today, for example. /7

This issue has been known since the start of the pandemic. Something else that has been happening since the start of the pandemic is "classical liberals" telling us that Sweden is out of the woods, because this week's death numbers are down --- using these misleading charts. /8

Sweden's death rate is not far behind that of the UK and France, and it's rising. ICU beds are running out. There is no economic miracle. If people try to tell you that "the pandemic is over in Sweden", based on "deaths tailing off", show them this thread. /9

The funny thing is, until 2020 the classical liberals all called Sweden the Worst Country In The World because of immigration. "You can't get a drink in Sweden because the Mooooslims have imposed Sharia Law and no-go areas" /10

Now it's "Sweden is so cool, look at them all enjoying their libertarian nightlife". It's almost as if it's been all about trolling, rather than any serious attempt to understand the issues, in either year. /11 /end