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Jeffrey on US policy
We’ve ratcheted up isolation & sanctions on Assad, we’ve held the line on no reconstruction. Syria's desperate You see what’s happened to the Syrian Lira, you see what’s happened to the economy. So, it’s been a very effective strategy http://almon.co/3f66
We’ve ratcheted up isolation & sanctions on Assad, we’ve held the line on no reconstruction. Syria's desperate You see what’s happened to the Syrian Lira, you see what’s happened to the economy. So, it’s been a very effective strategy http://almon.co/3f66
The collapse of the Lebanese banking system is another big blow.
We then also had the Israeli air campaign. The US only began supporting that when I came on board.
We then also had the Israeli air campaign. The US only began supporting that when I came on board.
First and foremost is denial of the [Assad regime] getting military victory. But because Turkey was so important and we couldn’t do this strategy without Turkey, that brought up the problem of the Turkish gripes in northeast Syria. So my job was to coordinate all of that.
Secretary Pompeo & I convinced people in the administration: If you don’t deal with the underlying problem of Iran in Syria, you’re not going to deal in an enduring way with IS. We saw this all as one thing.
So you throw all those together & you have a pretty effective military pillar of your military, diplomatic and isolation three pillars.
So that was how we put together our Syria policy, nestled under our Iran policy. The result has been relative success b/c we — with a lot of help from the Turks in particular — have managed to stabilize the situation.
The only change on the ground to the benefit of Assad has been southern Idlib in two and a half years of attacks. They are highly unlikely to continue, given the strength of the Turkish army there and the magnitude of the defeat of the Syrian army by the Turks back in March.
The Iranian ability to truly establish a southern Lebanon-style threat to Israel by long-range systems has also been blocked by the Israeli strikes, which are enabled by US diplomatic & other support, which is significant.
We have basically blocked Iran’s longer-term goals.
We have basically blocked Iran’s longer-term goals.
On Erdogan: You have to separate Erdogan from Turkey.
The biggest challenges for Biden will be China, Russia, North Korea, Iranian JCPOA and climate. Those are the 5 big ones. Number 6 is Turkey, because Turkey directly impacts two of the first five: Iran & Russia.
The biggest challenges for Biden will be China, Russia, North Korea, Iranian JCPOA and climate. Those are the 5 big ones. Number 6 is Turkey, because Turkey directly impacts two of the first five: Iran & Russia.
And it impacts number 8 or 9, terrorism.
Turkey's a very important NATO state. The NATO radar that is the core of the entire anti-ballistic missile system defending against Iran is in Turkey. We have tremendous military assets there.
Turkey's a very important NATO state. The NATO radar that is the core of the entire anti-ballistic missile system defending against Iran is in Turkey. We have tremendous military assets there.
We really can’t “do” the Mid East, Caucuses or Black Sea without Turkey. Turkey is a natural opponent of Russia and Iran.
Erdogan is a great power thinker. Where he sees vacuums, he moves. The other thing about Erdogan is he’s maddeningly arrogant, but he’s a rational actor.
Erdogan is a great power thinker. Where he sees vacuums, he moves. The other thing about Erdogan is he’s maddeningly arrogant, but he’s a rational actor.
So if Biden sees the world as many of us do, near-peer competition, Turkey becomes extremely important. Look what [Erdogan] has just done in eight months in Idlib, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia or Russian allies have been the loser in all three.
Nobody at the State Department side said hey, what about Turkey? Frankly, our local military and the State Department’s defeat-IS people were basically like, that’s somebody else’s problem.
The Turks along the border were provoked, primarily by us creating a border defense force
The Turks along the border were provoked, primarily by us creating a border defense force
This was CENTCOM out of control. This was the classic, ‘We’re just here to fight terrorists, let the f---heads in State Dept take care of Turkey, & we can do anything we want that pleases our little allies, and it doesn’t matter.’ And this was the bane of our existence.
Erdogan will not back down until you show him teeth.
When we negotiated the cease-fire in 10/2019, we were ready to crush the economy.
Putin did the same after the Russian plane was shot down. In Idlib, they chopped the shit out of a Turkish battalion. But It didn’t work out.
When we negotiated the cease-fire in 10/2019, we were ready to crush the economy.
Putin did the same after the Russian plane was shot down. In Idlib, they chopped the shit out of a Turkish battalion. But It didn’t work out.
If the Biden administration goes back to Obama's stupid thinking, then they’re going to lose the Middle East. You can forget about Asia.
The SDF are clean kids. I’ve gotten to know them & their leadership very well. They're phenomenal by Mid East standards. They’re a highly disciplined Marxist offshoot of the PKK. They’re also not interested in pursuing the PKK agenda. They’re squishees; they don’t have mountains.
The president was uncomfortable with our presence in Syria. He was very uncomfortable with what he saw as endless wars. This is something he should not be criticized for. We took down the [IS] caliphate, and then we stayed on. Trump kept asking, “Why do we have troops there?”
And we didn’t give him the right answer.
If somebody had said, “It’s all about the Iranians,” it might have worked. But the DOD just gave the [Congressional] Authorization of Use of Military Force: “We’re there to fight terrorists.”
If somebody had said, “It’s all about the Iranians,” it might have worked. But the DOD just gave the [Congressional] Authorization of Use of Military Force: “We’re there to fight terrorists.”
But the Syria mission is the gift that keeps on giving. We and the SDF are still the dominant force in [northeast] Syria.
The Kurds were always trying to get us to pretend that we would defend them against the Turkish army.
The Kurds were always trying to get us to pretend that we would defend them against the Turkish army.
The Kurds were always trying to get us to defend them against the Turkish army. They pressed CJTF to put outposts along the Turkish border. I hated the idea; it was simply a signal to the Turks that we couldn’t be trusted & had a plan of a permanent statelet in northeast Syria.
The president sent a message to Erdogan that if he did not stop within 24 hours, Mazlum would reach out to the Russians and invite them in, and the US would not stop them. Our Turkish interlocutor was incredulous.
They either thought the Russians wouldn’t come in or we would stop them, just as we did to Wagner. And the Russians came in. Suddenly it’s checkmate.
Can I claim the Turkish problem is solved? No. But the Turks now have a presence in NE Syria. They have less to fear fr the SDF.
Can I claim the Turkish problem is solved? No. But the Turks now have a presence in NE Syria. They have less to fear fr the SDF.
Al-Monitor: Should the Turks fear the SDF?
Jeffrey: Of course. The YPG is the PKK. Remember when they went into Raqqa? Remember the poster? That’s the problem. Erdogan does not want another statelet like Qandil in Syria that is protected by the U.S. or protected by Russia.
Jeffrey: Of course. The YPG is the PKK. Remember when they went into Raqqa? Remember the poster? That’s the problem. Erdogan does not want another statelet like Qandil in Syria that is protected by the U.S. or protected by Russia.
Preserving SDF is our plan B. We have a plan A, which doesn’t answer 'how does this all end?' Plan A’s whole purpose [is] to ensure that the Russians and Assad and the Iranians don’t have a happy answer to how this all ends, and maybe that will someday get them to accept Plan B.
Thanks to @JM_Szuba
