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So, my #APGov class has been looking at #ExitPoll data the past week days drawing comparisons and making inferences on how various demographic groups “tend” to vote. Things such as gender gap, marriage gap and etc. Well, like always my research led me down a rabbit hole:
*Thread
*Thread
First, no Democratic presidential candidate has won the “white vote” since LBJ in 1964. While Carter (76) and and Clinton (92, 96) won the presidency. I’d like to point out both were D’s from the south. Carter won 47%, Clinton (39 to Bush 40%) *remember Perot and 43% in ‘96.
In all 3 of those elections while they trailed their Republican candidate in that area. Each lost it by less than 5%. Not a “significant” enough percentage to push the election into the “R’s” hands. Now, you might be wondering what about Obama in ‘08 and ‘12?
Well,
Well,
Obama lost the white vote by 12% in ‘08 and by 20% in ‘12 
. So how did he win? Well, changing demographics in America. For example, in 1980 Reagan won the white vote (56-36%) +20pts with 489 electoral college votes and in ‘84 he won it (64-35%) +29 w/525 electors. BUT,
. So how did he win? Well, changing demographics in America. For example, in 1980 Reagan won the white vote (56-36%) +20pts with 489 electoral college votes and in ‘84 he won it (64-35%) +29 w/525 electors. BUT,
In 1980, white voters constituted 88% of the voting electorate. By 2008 that number shrank to 74%. So, Obama loosing the white vote by 12% still gave him a resounding win of 365 electoral college votes.
Fast forward to 2020, Trump won white votes (58-41%) +17.
Fast forward to 2020, Trump won white votes (58-41%) +17.
But, it still wasn’t enough to claim victory. For the 1st time in a presidential election white voters comprised less than 70% of the electorate (67%). While Hispanics/Latinx (13%) & Asian (4%) continue to grow. A-A’s remain steady at (13%). These groups “tend” to vote Democrat.
So what all does this mean?
In the next elections, Minorities will comprise even more of the electorate. If Democrats or Republicans want to control government they have to win that vote. Relying solely on the white vote is not going to be enough to win. America is changing.
In the next elections, Minorities will comprise even more of the electorate. If Democrats or Republicans want to control government they have to win that vote. Relying solely on the white vote is not going to be enough to win. America is changing.
