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Tasmanian devil news! A new study by @AustinHPatton in @ScienceMagazine ( https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6522/eabb9772) investigates the genetic makeup of devil facial tumour disease through time, finding that it has shifted from an epidemic phase, to an endemic one - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/tasmanian-devils-claw-their-way-back-extinction
Essentially, this was done by establishing the R number* of the DFTD outbreak through time - finding that it has dropped from a peak of 3-4, to around 1 today
* Everyone knows what an R number is now, right? Basically the number of further infections arising from 1 infection
* Everyone knows what an R number is now, right? Basically the number of further infections arising from 1 infection
While the reduction in transmission rate is at least partly driven by the lower devil density, it means the disease is not ripping through the devil population at the rate it once was. It also presents further signs that DFTD is very unlikely to drive the devil to extinction
Will temper this with the reminder that this doesn't mean Tasmanian devils are out of the woods *
For one, their populations are vastly reduced, making them more vulnerable to other events. They're also dealing with a second transmissible cancer, DFT2
* They do live there...
For one, their populations are vastly reduced, making them more vulnerable to other events. They're also dealing with a second transmissible cancer, DFT2
* They do live there...
But a further encouraging sign that devils are adapting to the threat of DFTD, which is definitely good news!
You can read the original paper here - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6522/eabb9772
Or a @ScienceMagazine article breaking down the devil/DFTD situation here - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/tasmanian-devils-claw-their-way-back-extinction
You can read the original paper here - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6522/eabb9772
Or a @ScienceMagazine article breaking down the devil/DFTD situation here - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/tasmanian-devils-claw-their-way-back-extinction
Excellent thread here by @AustinHPatton, the lead author of the study, who understands the phylodynamic methods used MUCH better than I do! It’s an extremely novel method that until now, has only really been used on fast reproducing diseases like viruses https://twitter.com/austinhpatton/status/1337154839298502657
