Euromomo has been updated for week 49; it still appears as though excess mortality in W. Europe peaked in early November. Reported Covid deaths peaked two weeks later. Oddly, reported Covid deaths have significantly exceeded excess mortality in Europe:
Unlike the Spring, when all-cause mortality rose with reported Covid deaths, this fall about 1/2 of reported Covid fatalities in Europe have been offset by "missing" fatalities from other causes. As Covid deaths rose, non-Covid deaths fell:
Looking just at reported Covid deaths, the peak of the fall wave appears almost equal to the peak seen in the spring. Accounting for all-cause mortality, however, shows that the spring wave was more than 2X as significant [peak excess deaths].