Mayor Bowser’s COVID mitigation plan is failing. Simple as that.

Remember in July when we were yelling about how Georgia had lost control of its epidemic?

DC now has 407 cases per million residents. That’s higher than GA’s July peak (352). And it’s nearing FL’s July peak (544). https://twitter.com/JulieZauzmer/status/1337052327224766467

I’m trying and failing to find any sign that DC’s case spike isn’t legit.

Cases are up 9% over the past 7 days. Hospitalizations are up 23%. And tests are actually *down* slightly from their Thanksgiving peak.

We know from local contact-tracing data that “work” is the #1 place that DC residents seem to be getting infected. It accounts for nearly a third of cases and rising.

(This chart is from ace local reporter @JulieZauzmer.)

So far, DC officials haven’t issued a stay-at-home order because they say residents won’t comply.

But that doesn’t make sense, given that work is the #1 place DC residents are getting sick. Workers can’t overrule their bosses & stay home without an order. https://dcist.com/story/20/12/07/dc-mayor-muriel-bowser-coronavirus-restrictions-sports-stimulus-check/

Broadly, I think the COVID discourse has lost track of the “point” of a stay-at-home order.

Yes, they’re somewhat blunt public-health tools, and they convey a level of urgency about spread. But they also protect workers from managers who would otherwise require them to come in.

Since I’ve been down on DC in this thread, I’ll add: I think the district has done an impressive job setting up testing. Officials have leveraged city facilities and admin capacity very well, and they’ve made it easy for people to get tested. (I hope that holds up in this surge!)