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SCOTUS PA CASE PREDICTION: trying to guess what SCOTUS will do in a case like this is a fool's errand, but the Twitterverse keeps asking me what I think, so here we go.
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Big picture: There are 5 solid conservative Justices, plus Chief J. Roberts. Roberts is an institutionalist and is always concerned about the perception and legitimacy of the Court. Half the country will be appalled no matter what the Court does. A 6-3 is better than a 5-4.
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If the conservative block intends to give teeth to the constitutional edict that only state legislatures can dictate election procedures, then it has a basis to reject changes in all 4 states made by other state or local officials w/o legislative approval.
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If it declines to address that issue, then states will rightly perceive that they can do whatever they want at any time to fundamentally alter election procedures. That does not strike mas a message the Court wants to send (or at least not a majority of the Court).
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The real challenge will be to get to the narrowest possible ruling in the hope that CJ Roberts will join the majority. That suggests the Court will rule strictly on undisputed matters and avoid the "Kraken" aspects of the recent election.
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If a majority decides that the 4 states improperly altered their election laws, then the Court will look for the least intrusive, constitutionally supportable remedy. It will NOT decide who is President. It will NOT decide who "won" the election in any state.
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The least intrusive remedy would be to declare only and narrowly that the 4 states improperly changed election laws, then punt the matter back to the state legislatures to decide what to do about it.
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That approach lets SCOTUS enforce the constitutional requirements re elections and electors, while not overreaching to impose what would be seen as a partisan remedy. There's no reason for SCOTUS to do more, b/c the Constitution provides a means for Congress to resolve it.
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So there's my best guess at what might happen between now and Monday. Thanks for asking.
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