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I've been consistently predicting #NoDeal for the last two years. Though I accept there are powerful arguments on the other side, my view hasn't changed.
#Brexit
I've been consistently predicting #NoDeal for the last two years. Though I accept there are powerful arguments on the other side, my view hasn't changed.
#Brexit
@davidallengreen has cast the issue as Boris Johnson having to choose between being "irresponsible" (No Deal) or "unprincipled" (hypocritically agreeing a deal which contradicts his previous positions). Fair enough.
But in trying to work out which route Johnson will take, we need to look at what will be most politically advantageous/least dangerous for him. He is a fairly short-term thinker, not especially consistent, and chiefly interested in holding on to power.
Note also that, under the government's own predictions, there is likely to be substantial disruption in January, even if there is a deal.
The government will take the blame for disruption in a Deal scenario, even if the chaos is less than it would have been under a No Deal scenario.
In other words, the chaos of a Deal is not going to be easily distinguishable from the chaos of No Deal.
Remainers, even if they are relieved that No Deal has been avoided, will hardly reward Johnson for a Deal which is obviously causing problems.
On the other hand, even a deal in which the EU made substantial concessions towards the UK position, will be axiomatically rejected by some diehard Brexiters as a "betrayal".
Doubtless some moderate Brexiters would breathe a sigh of relief, but it will be hard for them to make a positive case for the Deal when the disruption kicks in. Others will always be able to argue that No Deal would somehow have avoided the problems.
There are plenty of Tory politicians willing to knife Johnson if they can find a way to do so, and "betrayal" is the obvious cry.
In a nutshell, I don't see Johnson getting a significant political win from a Deal unless (and possibly even if) the EU caves 100%.
Whereas with No Deal he can at least give a lot of satisfaction to a large number of his core supporters. This would only be a short term win, and once it had been achieved Johnson might appear dispensable, but it could buy him some time.
A lot of people still seem to be saying "Surely now common sense will prevail", but I don't see why it would. Deal is a dead cert loss. No Deal, from a certain perspective, can look like an appealing gamble - and people on a losing streak tend to gamble bigger to recoup the loss.
Johnson's "No PM could accept" language yesterday also makes retreat very difficult. As Attlee said of Churchill: "That's the trouble with Winston. Nails his trousers to the mast. Can't climb down."
Johnson has always wanted to be Churchillian. In this sense - nailing his own trousers to the mast - he may have at last achieved it.
At any rate, that is why I continue to predict No Deal.
ENDS.
At any rate, that is why I continue to predict No Deal.
ENDS.
