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Another 1.3 million people applied for UI last week, including 853,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 428,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was an increase of 276,000 from the prior week. Initial claims haven’t been this high since September. 2/
Last week’s increase is not just about week-to-week volatility in the data. The four-week moving average of total initial claims hasn’t been this high since October. In other words, layoffs do seem to be rising now, consistent with the resurgent virus. 3/
And, last week was the 38th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims were greater than the second-worst week of the GR. 4/
Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits. Given the length of this crisis, many workers have exhausted their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, the 4-wk moving average of continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 260,000. 5/
FOR NOW, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. 6/
However, in the latest data available for PEUC, the week ending Nov 21, PEUC ticked down by 36,000. How did this happen, with so many people exhausting regular state UI and needing to get on PEUC? 7/
Many of the roughly 2 million people who were on UI before the recession began, or who are in states w/ less than 26 weeks of regular state benefits, are now *exhausting* PEUC, as others get on. More than 1.5 million workers had exhausted PEUC by the end of Oct. 8/
In some states, if workers exhaust PEUC, they can get on yet another program, Extended Benefits (EB). In the latest data, 615,000 workers were on EB. That’s far less than half of those who have exhausted PEUC. Most are left with nothing. 9/
This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data for this are for Nov 21). Continuing claims are still more than 17 million above where they were a year ago, even with the exhaustions we’ve seen so far.
Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire at the end of July. Last week was the 19th week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not receive the extra payment. 11/
And w/o congressional action, PUA & PEUC will expire on Dec 26. Millions of workers are depending on these programs (DOL reports 13.1 mil in the latest data). When they expire, millions of these workers & their families will be financially devastated. 12/
@pelhamprog and @ENPancotti find that 12 million workers will lose PUA or PEUC benefits when they expire on Dec 26—on top of the 4.4 million who will have exhausted them before then. And only 2.9 million will then be eligible for EB. 13/ https://twitter.com/ENPancotti/status/1329047409691930624
That means a total of 13.5 million workers (12.0 million + 4.4 million – 2.9 million) will have lost CARES Act benefits by the end of the year with nothing to fill in the gap. 14/
The House passed a $3 trillion relief package in May, then a $2.2 trillion relief package in October, and Pelosi and Schumer have said they back a $900 billion bipartisan bill as a basis for negotiations. Senate Republicans must act. 15/
We can’t forget that UI is extremely effective economic stimulus. As @eliselgould and @joshbivens_DC show, reinstating and extending pandemic UI provisions would create or save more than FIVE MILLION jobs. 16/ https://www.epi.org/blog/reinstating-and-extending-the-pandemic-unemployment-insurance-programs-through-2021-could-create-or-save-5-1-million-jobs/
There are now 26.1 million workers who are either unemployed, otherwise out of work because of the virus, or have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic. And job growth is slowing. Stimulus is desperately needed. 17/ https://www.epi.org/blog/the-economy-president-elect-biden-is-inheriting-more-than-26-million-workers-15-5-of-the-workforce-are-being-directly-hurt-by-the-coronavirus-downturn/
Not enacting more stimulus will exacerbate racial inequality. Due to the impact of historic & current systemic racism, Black and Latinx workers have seen more job loss in this pandemic, and have less wealth to fall back on. 18/
And of course, people haven’t just lost their jobs. Millions of workers and their family members have lost employer-provided health insurance due to job loss in the coronavirus downturn. 19/
To get the economy back on track in a reasonable timeframe, policymakers must pass roughly $3 trillion in fiscal support, with the first $2 trillion hitting the economy between now and mid-2022. 20/ https://www.epi.org/publication/principles-for-the-relief-and-recovery-phase-of-rebuilding-the-u-s-economy-use-debt-go-big-and-stay-big-and-be-very-slow-when-turning-off-fiscal-support/ @joshbivens_DC
And here's this cheery thread in blog post form. n/ https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-claims-hit-highest-level-in-months-millions-more-jobs-will-be-lost-if-congress-doesnt-act/
