Wow, UI claims rebounded to 1.38 million (948K UI initial claims NSA + 428K PUA claims) last wk after the Thanksgiving lull, worst since Sep!

Prior week's drop was likely fluke due to holiday. Rebound signals things aren't just stagnating, they're worsening

#joblessclaims 1/

Even on a seasonally adjusted basis (which can be weird in the winter), UI initial claims rose to 853K, the highest level since October.

The increase in claims also broad-based, affecting 47 states + territories.

#joblessclaims 2/

Continuing claims also jumped to 5.8 million, the first increase since August.

Continuing claims rising is especially concerning given that there's enormous downward pressure on this figure as benefits are exhausted for millions of unemployed.

#joblessclaims 3/

PUA claims jumped +53K in Nevada, an improbable 6x increase which is potentially a data issue.

But even if we subtract out the Nevada spike, claims would still be at their highest since September.

#joblessclaims 4/

One okay piece of news is that PEUC & EB claims fell, but the data for those programs is delayed an extra wk, so entirely possible we see them jump in next wk's report.

Similarly, benefit exhaustion may slow in Nov, but millions have already lost benefits.

#joblessclaims 5/

Today's report is worse than anybody expected—most of the claims indicators are moving in the wrong direction across most states, pointing to a real worsening.

This only increase the urgency of Congressional action to bridge Americans over the winter.

#joblessclaims 6/6