Arizona
+ Georgia
+ Pennsylvania
------------------

2024 / 2028 Bellwether states

Why? A thread.

Pennsylvania is the best indicator of how Michigan and Wisconsin will vote.

The plurality of a Democratic coalition is powered by white college educated voters in center cities and suburbs.

A combination of all voters of color provide the margin of victory.

Georgia indicates a state like DC, Delaware and Virginia before them where Black voters largely in suburbs but also in center cities & rural areas provide a plurality of votes to the Democratic nominee.

Georgia & Mississippi had the least center city & rural Black erosion.

Any path to winning North Carolina in 2024 or 2028 or the greater Carolina, Alabama and Mississippi would require high turnout with all of these voters.

These states can be won with >30% white support, have lower numbers of white college grads & would need Asian/Latino voters to be provide the winning margin as they did in Georgia.

Arizona reflects state like New Mexico and California before them where Latino/a voters largely in suburbs but also in center cities & rural areas provide a plurality of votes to the Democratic nominee.

Arizona & Nevada had the least center city & rural Latino/a erosion.

Any path to winning Texas in 2024 or 2028 or Florida, Utah or Montana, in the future would require high turnout with all of these voters.

These states can be won with >50% white support, they have higher numbers of white college grads & graduates of color. These numbers Pre-COVID were growing exponentially.

In Arizona, Native/Indigenous (who actually per capita give the most support to Democrats than any other radial group but the genocide) and Black voters would provide the winning margin as they did in Arizona.

The @JoeBiden & @KamalaHarris path to 306 electoral votes led by @jomalleydillon was brilliant.

It wasn't the Carter, Clintons or Obama path to victory.

We had states where our entire coalition brought the state home like the Rust Belt.

Latinos, for the first time in the primary and general were the highest voting minority group.

Only Native & Black women provided more total votes per capita than Latino women.

They delivered Arizona like they did New Mexico, California and Nevada.

Black voters, led by Black women who outvoted their share of the electorate and more than doubled their turnout of Black men, continued to show we can be more than the winning margins in center cities.

Slight decreases in center cities & massive losses in rural areas where largely erased by our Black excellence turning out voters in the burbs of Minneapolis, Detroit, Philly, Phoenix, Charlotte and ESPECIALLY Atlanta.

None of this should be a surprise. Former swing states like Colorado and Virginia and before them Maryland and Delaware changed the same way.

Colorado suburbs like Aurora and DC burbs like PG county have large bodies of divers college educated voters & prosperous BIPOC.

So, in 2024, the focus are these 3 states.

They will indicate the viability of Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas and North Carolina.

Their progression to likely or safe states will eventually lead to further Sunbelt expansion.

Finished. Forgive typos!