A short #FPL thread about why optimization could help with your weekly decisions and highlighting the trade-off between playing safe vs playing high risk/high reward.
Blog post is here: https://alpscode.com/blog/fpl-ownership-weight/

Most of the time any posts about using analytics is reacted with confusion even in #FPLCommunity. This is why I am grateful for people like @analytic_fpl @fplreview @rogue_wee and many others who promote the use of #data & #analytics.

We think humans are capable of evaluating hundreds of players just by watching games, that if any player is really good we should notice. Not true, trust data.

But even if you assume @fplreview's estimations are 100% correct, it's difficult to see what is overall "best".

Choosing 4 midfields under a certain budget sounds like a basic problem. Based on optimal solutions, here is how the optimal solution and expected points change.

If you would like to follow the trend, however, you will lose some expected points in exchange of playing safe. You can add the common belief of #FPLCommunity as a penalty to your own model.

Take-away
1. You can use optimization models and make use of data & your predictions. It's useful and worth the time to learn.
2. Following trends may keep your #FPL rank safe, but trusting your predictions is as equally important as spending extra money. https://alpscode.com/blog/fpl-ownership-weight/