EU proposing some basic measures to keep basic connectivity between the UK and EU in the event of no deal, including “provision for certain air services”. https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1336973232159776769

This is potentially drastic stuff. For a sense of why it will be such an economic jolt, consider that right now it’s as easy to travel and transport goods to Milan as it is to Manchester (save covid). With no deal (save distance) in trade terms that changes to Mongolia.

Take a look at this map. If the UK leaves with no deal, we join one of the few countries in the world, including Iran, Venezuela, Libya and Russia, with either no trade agreement with Europe and which won’t be negotiating one.

And unlike all of the others, the UK will go from having been effectively in the EU and its trading zone one day to being as far from it as is possible to be, literally the next. We will do do with an existing trading relationship of around £700bn.

All of this is why I think, there will be a deal. But if there isn’t, we should be under illusions about what a profound change and rupture it is. That’s for both sides but especially Britain as the EU is bigger and therefore less exposed.

NB as I was saying yesterday, it’s a profound change and rupture even with a deal. The question of a deal or not merely adds degree. https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1336801296452644867