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I’ve had the opportunity to participate in a significant number of policy discussions over the past few months re: future of U.S. engagement in the W. Balkans & by relation Washington’s relationship w/ the EU viz. this important region. Bosnia has feat prominently in all talks.
My sense is that there is interest & appetite both w/in the region & in the U.S. for a “big” play in the WB. Constitutional reform in Bosnia & a final settlement of Kosovo’s status are the marquee objectives, w/ resuscitating EU credibility in the region a kind of macro-goal.
The scale of the Biden admin’s engagement tho will necessarily be shaped by the state of U.S. domestic politics. And btw the pandemic, the associated economic pain & the absolute lunacy of the Trumpist GOP, things are not looking promising.
Still, Biden clearly considers repairing America’s world standing as one of his personal priorities. And that’s promising for the U.S. traditional partners in the WB; above all Sarajevo, Pristina, Skopje but also Podgorica.
I’m juggling two concerns re: BiH: in some ways the Biden admin feels like a historic, generational opportunity for major, structural reform. If successful, this would be transformational for BiH, the region, but also the idea of the U.S. as the one true diplomatic superpower.
But - and it’s a big “but” - I’m very concerned that a half-hearted effort could dramatically undermine the political & security situation in BiH & the region, as much & possibly more so than the shock of the Trump era. Why? Bc Biden has to “reboot” the American brand...
...and if that fizzles out, in a country as small as BiH, but which is watched closely by all regional actors + Russia, China, Turkey & obvs the EU, the costs will be severe. And yet, doing nothing is also not an option bc the political & security situation in the WB has...
...dramatically deteriorated over the past 4-6 yrs. The U.S. washing its hands of the region will only further accelerate centrifugal forces & the EU cannot & won’t check them alone.
So, that’s where we are all at, IMO. How we proceed remains to be seen. Tick-tock. /xxx
So, that’s where we are all at, IMO. How we proceed remains to be seen. Tick-tock. /xxx
