1. A few quick thoughts about the Facebook antitrust suit and what it might mean for fighting monopoly power in the coming months/years. Basically, it's a good thing that will absolutely have big consequences in the future. https://twitter.com/alanzilberman/status/1336762749272125440

2. First, the good. The FTC's lawsuit is great. It calls out Facebook's obviously bad behavior of buying its rivals to quash their current and future competition, and uses the tried-and-true strategy of finding the company's worst documents & quoting from them liberally.

3. If the FTC and the states succeed and Facebook is broken up, as they have requested, it will instantly give social media users a real choice in platforms. How many of us would be happy to use Insta if we knew it wasn't a Facebook property? Lots.

4. Bigger picture: Along with the Google lawsuit, this action against Facebook signals an absolute sea change in our national thinking about monopoly power. These lawsuits are both bold and brave. It's the government going up against literal giants. Maximum respect.

5. It will also have a major affect on what happens with the House Subcommittee's staff report on monopoly power in the big tech industry. The effect could be good, could be bad. It all depends on who wins the lawsuits, who loses, and how.

6. Let's say the government wins both lawsuits, and Google and Facebook are broken up. Even if the wins are narrow, on the specific points of law in the lawsuits, it will sill mean two of the four targets of the big tech report have been dissolved. Now what?

7. Whatever momentum might now be behind following through on the report's recommendations could be lost. EVEN THOUGH the systemic issues with antitrust enforcement identified in the report still exist and need to be addressed!

8. Plus, the worst actor of them all, Amazon, will still be vacuuming wealth out of the economy at the expense of workers and small businesses. Will still be creating a private government to rule the economy. Not following the reports' recommendations would be perilous.

9. So that's the risk. The government does good by breaking up Google and Facebook, but the systemic problems, and the most dangerous monopoly in the history of the world, would remain.

10. Now what if the government loses both lawsuits? Also obviously bad! Google and FB are emboldened to carry on as they have, favoring their own products and buying up rivals. Plus, there would be more bad caselaw on the books. Antimonopoly law gets weaker.

11. But suddenly, the recommendations in the Cicilline report look that much more important and urgent! The courts are clearly going to let monopolists do what they want. The case for significant legal changes, including Glass-Steagall style breakups, grows stronger.

12. Whether Google/FB wins lead to real legal changes - who knows. Will the perseverance of Google and Facebook convince Senate Republicans to act? Will the Biden administration support these kinds of Congressional actions? Questions and risks abound.

13. But there's another option. One that - lord help me - might even be LIKELY. Has the obvious momentum behind the antimonopoly movement - the Cicilline report, the bipartisan concern over monopoly power, the growing public outcry - actually convinced the antitrust cops to act??

14. What if Google and Facebook are just the start? And this sea change that has clearly occurred within the agencies grows stronger under a Biden admin, and suddenly Amazon, Agriculture monopolies, beer, eyeglasses and all the rest are in the antitrust crosshairs?

15. Strengthening the law will still be important. Resetting decades of terrible, conservative case law matters. But if the government wins both cases, let's say - surely the agencies will feel like the wind is at their backs. They'll ask, "who's next?"

16. The answer, then, is Amazon. Then Monsanto. Meatpacking. Disney. All the rest.

Legal changes will move this kind of project along faster, of course. But the repercussions of this Facebook lawsuit, and the Google action before it, will be felt most clearly at the agencies.

17. Ok, that's it for now. Anyway - truly incredible times, I'll tell you. Good on the FTC. Good on the states that sued. The fight against monopolies has to start somewhere. So, here we go.

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