Read on Twitter
Preparing my weekly column/newsletter today and realized that tomorrow is Disney's Earnings Call. So a quick thread?
Setting my predictions now to hold myself accountable.
Setting my predictions now to hold myself accountable.
Yet this is Twitter, so let's make it interactive. Chime in with what you think may happen, and (this is key) *whether* or not you think it's a good idea.
If you wait until after the announcement, it's too late. Then confirmation bias may sneak in.
If you wait until after the announcement, it's too late. Then confirmation bias may sneak in.
So here is what I've been hearing from the inter webs, including that leak:
- Something called "Disney 18+" may become a thing.
- Disney may expand "Premier Access". (The Mulan bet.)
- Hulu may merge with Disney+ in the US.
- More Star Expansion.
- Something called "Disney 18+" may become a thing.
- Disney may expand "Premier Access". (The Mulan bet.)
- Hulu may merge with Disney+ in the US.
- More Star Expansion.
If I missed any, I'll add them in. (I haven't read @loudmouthjulia newsletter so I'm sure I'll find some more.)
Here is my takes without hearing their plan:
- Disney 18+ and Premiere Access are potential complications to the Disney+ platform.
Think the difference between Amazon and Netflix. One is a clean UI with clear value prop. The other is run by Jeff Bezos.
- Disney 18+ and Premiere Access are potential complications to the Disney+ platform.
Think the difference between Amazon and Netflix. One is a clean UI with clear value prop. The other is run by Jeff Bezos.
Does anyone like that Prime Video has stuff with ads, channels, free content, free content from shady overseas companies and stuff that costs money?
No.
Premiere Access risks that.
No.
Premiere Access risks that.
Onto folding Hulu into Disney+, which @aysrick elegantly threw tons of shade on in a recent newsletter.
This move makes a pinch more sense, but feels so complicated as to not be worth it.
This move makes a pinch more sense, but feels so complicated as to not be worth it.
Instead, I think it makes sense for Disney to have Hulu/Star essentially be partners globally for adults and Disney+ to spearhead the Disney+ brand.
As for global expansion of Star, I'm all for it, as long as the execution makes sense. Variety recently had an article that Disney+ is ensuring local content is available for Star.
That's so crucial. But it raises the difficulty of expansion. https://variety.com/2020/streaming/asia/disney-plus-hotstar-indonesia-2-1234730335/
That's so crucial. But it raises the difficulty of expansion. https://variety.com/2020/streaming/asia/disney-plus-hotstar-indonesia-2-1234730335/
I guess I should also predict what Disney does about blockbusters in theaters. My guess is they fight to keep the theatrical window for blockbusters.
Meanwhile, they'll announce a bunch of made for streaming films.
Meanwhile, they'll announce a bunch of made for streaming films.
As I wrote last week, this is a pinch of a PR play. On one hand, a theatrical film is a film that is released in theaters.
On the other, it's certain budgets with a marketing commitments. My guess is D+'s films have much smaller of both. https://entertainmentstrategyguy.com/2020/12/04/discovery-is-almost-as-big-as-the-warner-bros-2021-news-most-important-story-of-the-week-4-dec-20/
On the other, it's certain budgets with a marketing commitments. My guess is D+'s films have much smaller of both. https://entertainmentstrategyguy.com/2020/12/04/discovery-is-almost-as-big-as-the-warner-bros-2021-news-most-important-story-of-the-week-4-dec-20/
Finally, subscriber numbers!
First, does Disney provide numbers as of the one year anniversary? Or current? Or both?
My guess is the one year anniversary numbers, but both wouldn't surprise me.
First, does Disney provide numbers as of the one year anniversary? Or current? Or both?
My guess is the one year anniversary numbers, but both wouldn't surprise me.
Or, if either number is over 100 million, that's the number they choose.
Could they get there?
Could they get there?
Probably not? They launched in LATAM in Nov, but they also had the Verizon deal expire.
Here's their past growth rates:
Here's their past growth rates:
So here's the range of outcomes:
Getting to 25% growth would be great, so that feels the most likely to me, with a push to have a great announcement.
More predictions from the comments. As @cre4334 points out, we need a specific Black Widow prediction.
Options:
D+ direct (like Soul)
Premiere Access ($30)
Day-and-Date (like Wonder Woman 1984)
Traditional release.
Options:
D+ direct (like Soul)
Premiere Access ($30)
Day-and-Date (like Wonder Woman 1984)
Traditional release.
My guess would be either 1 or 4.
Also inspired by @JakeVK I feel that it's a no brainier that we'll get tons of content release dates.
Presumably the whole 2021 plan now that Disney knows how production is going.
Presumably the whole 2021 plan now that Disney knows how production is going.
Also, to be clear, I think D18+ doesn't happen in the US, but maybe overseas. I think Premiere Access, though, will likely happen. I don't think Hulu merges with Disney+ in the US...too complicated.
Too many hints.
Too many hints.
Also, I think Modern Family does go to Disney+, a move I have said before I love. Disney+ needs more sticky content.
As for the "certainty" level, I'm highly uncertain on all of this. For all we know, none of the big moves happen and it's just a "hey, we're going all in on D+" while just announcing shows.
The only thing they sort of have to do is clarify their plans for theaters. HBO Max sort of forced that.
Okay, finished reading it and credit to her @loudmouthjulia gives us ALL her predictions. https://musingsonmouse.substack.com/p/what-to-expect-from-disneys-biggest?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoyMDM4NjUyLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoyMjU4MjAzNCwiXyI6ImpWYWlFIiwiaWF0IjoxNjA3NTQ0NDYyLCJleHAiOjE2MDc1NDgwNjIsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNzA5NSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.5vauvKv97b_iq0wA7Id8OL0f-aMjXrpdJCyZBISTUNU
To repeat, I think that her fourth prediction is likely (Premiere Access for Black Widow), but I think that's a bad strategic decision by Disney.
I'm just not as bearish on theatrical attendance as even many studio executives are.
I'm just not as bearish on theatrical attendance as even many studio executives are.
