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The global markets are giant betting markets, predicting outcomes from events, And right nowIt looks like they are telling us SOMETHING BIG IS HAPPENING with the Dollar
Time For a Thread
1/ Crowdsourced information has been proven to be extremely reliable, in numerous tests and studies, when the crowd independently guesses, and then those votes and totaled and averaged, it is extremely accurate https://www.fastcompany.com/3028840/the-surprising-accuracy-of-crowdsourced-predictions-about-the-future
2/ It gets even more accurate when experts are voting, especially when they have "skin in the game", or money, as we have seen evidenced by this years election where the betting markets performed better than the polls https://fee.org/articles/why-betting-markets-are-better-at-predicting-the-future-than-pundits-and-polls/
3/ The largest betting markets are the stock markets where billions of bets take place daily as investors place their vote with their money, guessing and predicting on certain outcomes, this is why the markets are called âdiscounting mechanismsâ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/discounting-mechanism.asp
4/ so what is the world's largest betting market telling us now? Specifically, I am looking at what the market is telling us about the $USD. Last week, it plunged to new lows for the year. And peak to trough it has lost nearly 13%
5/ What's important here isnât the level, it's been at 91 plenty of times before. But 2 things:
1) The SPEED the $USD is dropping
2) Why this is happening
And yes, since 2015, $USD has traded in a range between 104 and 88 and had significant drops, but none have dropped so fast
1) The SPEED the $USD is dropping
2) Why this is happening
And yes, since 2015, $USD has traded in a range between 104 and 88 and had significant drops, but none have dropped so fast
6/ In the currency markets, the SPEED at which a currency moves is just as important as the actual price at which a currency is trading. A currency can trade at practically any level without it being a cause for major concern, provided it gets there in an orderly fashion.
7/ Itâs when a currency starts moving RAPIDLY that things become ugly quickly. Which brings us to item #2 in our list above:
What Is Driving This Drop In The $USD?
What Is Driving This Drop In The $USD?
8/ The last major drop in $USD was 16'. That move was driven by the âShanghai Accordâ that was formed in China in Feb 16', it was a closed-door meeting in where the G-20 nations agreed to a coordinated policy to weaken the $USD to make debt cheaper globly https://globalaffairspressdotcom.wordpress.com/2016/10/20/heres-what-the-shanghai-accord-means-for-the-dollar/
9/ So, the S.A was the world leaders agreeing, âto make $USD cheaper to avoid a debt crisis, to strengthen against the $USD while the U.S. weakens its currencyâ key words here are: âcoordinatedâ and âagreed.â
But, this current drop in the $USD is NOT driven by coordinated policy
But, this current drop in the $USD is NOT driven by coordinated policy
10/ today youâve got every major central bank running massive QE programs while maintaining interest rates at 0%. And the $USD is STILL collapsing. So, what is driving this collapse? Two things:
1) Higher inflation
2) And, most importantly, A collapse in confidence in the U.S.
1) Higher inflation
2) And, most importantly, A collapse in confidence in the U.S.
11/ The 2020 U.S. election is full of fraud claims. Iâm not going to tackle this topic but regardless of your political views or your desired outcome for this election, the items that have been presented call into question the entire electionâs legitimacy https://thomisticthinker.com/skeptical-of-voter-fraud-in-2020-heres-your-evidence/
12 / I believe the current rapid collapse in the $USD is telling us that the currency markets (the largest most liquid markets in the world, and most sensitive to systemic changes) believe the U.S. is rapidly losing credibility as a country on the global stage.
13/ This is one reason why the U.S. stock markets typically attract so much capital from global investors: the world knows the U.S. has credible accounting standards and creditworthiness, compared to China, who no one trusts at all
14/ So what does this mean? I expect to see continued weakness against USD and fiat Currency. Is USD still the best house in a bad neighborhood? Yes⊠But confidence is going fast. Most donât understand what is âbackingâ the USD, and other fiat currency, and the answer is âTRUSTâ
15 / Trust takes a lifetime to build but can be lost in an instant. Quoting John Maxwell:
âTrust is a firm belief in the honesty, integrity, reliability of another person. Trust must be earned-one piece at a time.â
https://www.mediate.com/articles/ray-trust-earned.cfm
âTrust is a firm belief in the honesty, integrity, reliability of another person. Trust must be earned-one piece at a time.â
https://www.mediate.com/articles/ray-trust-earned.cfm
16/ Markets are telling us "trust is failing", it breaks down gradually then suddenly. When it breaks there is no way to get it back. Those paying attention see this, which is why #BTC 
is shooting higher, you need a life raft from the inevitable crash of USD and fiat currencies
is shooting higher, you need a life raft from the inevitable crash of USD and fiat currencies
