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There seems to be some confusion about the results of Saturday's election in Kuwait. @abdullahalkhonaini & I summarized our key takeaways for @monkeycageblog yesterday. But space limitations prevented us from saying more. /1 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/08/kuwait-voted-this-weekend-who-won/
The basics: 326 candidates ran in 5, 10-member districts. The only official results to be released are the vote totals of the winners. Some candidates are already complaining about this. 2/ https://twitter.com/waleedalghanim/status/1336267451915526145
Hadas (ICM, or MB) endorsed candidates in all 5 districts & won 3 seats (4 in 2016). Tajammu' al-Islami al-Salafi endorsed candidates in all 5 districts & won 2 seats (1 in 2016). Thawabet al-Umma, another Salafi movement, endorsed 3 candidates & won 2 seats (1 in 2016). 3/
About 20 independent Islamists also ran in the election (15 in 2016). 3 of these candidates won on Saturday (3 in 2016). By my count, 10 Islamists won on Saturday. 9 won in 2016. Not all of these individuals are necessarily (or self-describe as) "opposition." 4/
About 15 candidates ran as "independent liberals" in the election. 5 of these candidates won on Saturday (5 in 2016). It is very difficult to identify who is a "liberal" in this context. Reasonable people can (and often do) disagree about these ideological labels. 5/
6 Shia candidates won seats on Saturday (6 in 2016). What some describe as "Shia Islamists" also nominated candidates. Tahalof al-Watani al-Islami endorsed candidates in 3 districts & won 1 seat (2 in 2016). Al-Risala al-Insaniyya endorsed 1 candidate & won 1 seat (0 in 2016). /6
An argument can be made that some of winners nominated by ideological movements are more oppositional (particularly among liberals). But the overall balance is unchanged. This does not mean that elected MPs will not challenge the government. They could. /7
Overall, 29 tribal candidates won (26 in 2016). The Mutran went from 2 to 6, Awazem from 3 to 7, Ajman from 3 to 4, & Shammar from 0 to 1. Rashaida stayed at 4, Otban at 3, & Dawasir, Dhafeer, & Hershan at 1. Aniza went from 4 to 1. Four smaller tribes went from 1 to 0 seats. /8
At least 3 of the "tribal" winners publicly rejected their tribe's primary and won anyway. Another 4 won in the Third District, where tribal coordination tends to be weaker. These trends are consistent with past elections. 9/
Overall, I think we can say that the system worked as intended. After casting his vote, recently re-appointed PM Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled said: "Everyone is a winner!" That is true -- but only if you are a man. /10 https://www.alraimedia.com/article/1511177/%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%A9/%D8%B5%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF-%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B9-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B2
The claim that 2/3 of the KNA are "new" is not really accurate. 19 are returning MPs from 2016 and 10 are returning MPs from before 2016 (when, post-2012, there were arguably even more "pro-government" forces in the Assembly). /11
Of the 21 newcomers, 8 were elected in tribal primaries. Not to mention, the government gets up to 16 additional votes in the KNA. /12
I say this only to emphasize that on paper, there is considerable continuity. There are some new faces--some of which are certainly more oppositional--but the meaning of this change is still very much an open question. Time will tell! /13
Feel free to message me or call out my numbers if they are wrong. Coding these candidates is challenging, and it is not difficult to get things wrong. /14
