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Re: Adam Fox
There's a few things that make him unique.
Most stars will either show very well at the moment they're drafted, make modest jumps in equivalency throughout their development, growing into a star and/or make the NHL early. https://twitter.com/wwright88/status/1336462438519156736
There's a few things that make him unique.
Most stars will either show very well at the moment they're drafted, make modest jumps in equivalency throughout their development, growing into a star and/or make the NHL early. https://twitter.com/wwright88/status/1336462438519156736
Fox does none of these. He shows like an NHLer at the draft but not like a star. Then he goes nuts in his first year of college. Very few have an equivalency that high. He doesnt gradually grow, racking up points on the way, like most do. So he gets short changed a bit.
But players who do this tend to make the NHL soon after. Which can be another path to stardom. Fox, on his own accord, does not. He willingly stays in college and doesnt sign with the Flames.
And he stays for 3 years (we would go on to find out later he wasnt willing to sign with the flames and wanted to give back east). I watch the player for 5 years. Fox doesnt make the NHL within that 5 years so doesnt hit that NHL factor.
Most players would sign with the team after a year like Fox's first college year. The ones that dont... there's often a reason (that isn't like Fox who just didnt want to sign)
The model, which is looking for similar patterns over 30 years, sees this and starts to recognize that players who look like this that aren't in the NHL by their D2 or D3 dont tend to fair well. So it starts to ding Fox in a similar way. Thinking there's something wrong with him.
Out of 6,000 players, nobody really has an identical path to Fox. I could see he was likely going to be a star early but he's a huge outlier and the model doesn't pick up on him correctly.
