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THE STATS BEHIND PAUL POGBA AT MANCHESTER UNITED – Keep or Get Rid? (A Thread)(All data from TransferMarkt)
#MUFC
On the eve of a season-defining Champions League game for Manchester United – Paul Pogba’s agent: Mino Raiola, sent shockwaves through Old Trafford and beyond by stating that his man wanted out of Manchester.
Since then, fans and pundits alike have been asking the same question – keep or get rid? To help solve the issue, I’ve delved into the stats behind Pogba’s time at United to see if he’s justified his £89m price tag, or simply flattered to deceive.
Since the Frenchman’s (re)arrival in 2016, the Red Devils have played a total of 251 competitive games, in which Pogba has appeared in 171. In these games, he has played 13,512 minutes - 59.8% of all game-time – averaging around 79 minutes per appearance.
55 of Pogba’s 80 missed games have been forced due to injury, and with 35 of these absences resulting from an ankle injury sustained only last season, it’s fair to say that Pogba’s health record has, broadly speaking, been fairly positive.
Pogba’s goals and assists stats from centre-midfield certainly aren’t too shabby either – scoring 34 and setting his teammates up for another 37. He is therefore averaging a goal contribution once every 190 minutes.
Comparatively, Steven Gerrard – who played a similar box-to-box role in the same competitions - averaged a goal or assist every 180 minutes at Liverpool. This is only 10 minutes per contribution better than Pogba at United, and therefore shows Pogba’s impressive offensive output.
With these stats, you’d think that United are a better team with Pogba than without him, right? This is where things get interesting – I’ve totalled United’s wins, draws, losses, goals scored and goals conceded with and without Pogba for comparison – and here’s how they shape up.
With Pogba – 171G, 94W, 37D, 40L – 1.87PPG (55% win rate)
Without Pogba – 80G, 50W, 14D, 16L – 2.05PPG (62.5% win rate)
With Pogba – 171G, 286 goals scored, 175 goals against – 1.67GSPG, 1.02GAPG
Without Pogba – 80G, 155 goals scored, 59 goals against – 1.94GSPG, 0.74GAPG
Without Pogba – 80G, 50W, 14D, 16L – 2.05PPG (62.5% win rate)
With Pogba – 171G, 286 goals scored, 175 goals against – 1.67GSPG, 1.02GAPG
Without Pogba – 80G, 155 goals scored, 59 goals against – 1.94GSPG, 0.74GAPG
Shockingly, Manchester United are actually worse in every statistic with Pogba in the side than they are without him. Not only is there a 7.5% discrepancy in win-rate, United also end up being statistically one goal better off at both ends every 3-4 games without him in the team.
There are some underlying stats worth noting here. United are actually better in the League with Pogba (1.93PPG with vs 1.67PPG without), whereas their win % in domestic cup games with Pogba is 65% compared to 84% without him. So the stats may be skewed due to easy Cup fixtures…
…in which Pogba didn’t play – such as 4-0 victories against Reading and Wigan in 2017. However, Pogba did feature in similar games where United have disappointed, such as the 2:1 loss to Bristol City the following season, as well as missing victories over Chelsea and Man City.
Most notable, however, are his stats in European competitions. Here, Pogba seems to significantly underperform, seeing his productivity fall to a goal or assist only every 278 minutes (5G, 5A in 2777 mins). United’s European stats with and without him make tough reading too:
With Pogba in Europe – 38G, 19W, 5D, 14L (50% win rate)
Without Pogba in Europe – 14G, 11W, 2D, 1L (79% win rate)
With Pogba in Europe – 38G, 54 goals scored, 35 goals against – 1.4GSPG, 0.92GAPG
Without Pogba in Europe – 14G, 35 goals scored, 5 goals against – 2.5GSPG, 0.36GAPG
Without Pogba in Europe – 14G, 11W, 2D, 1L (79% win rate)
With Pogba in Europe – 38G, 54 goals scored, 35 goals against – 1.4GSPG, 0.92GAPG
Without Pogba in Europe – 14G, 35 goals scored, 5 goals against – 2.5GSPG, 0.36GAPG
When the lights shine the brightest, on the biggest stage, it seems Pogba fails to rise to the challenge. United are over a goal a game for, and a goal every other game against, better off without him in Europe – and this is demonstrated in a fall in win rate of almost 30%.
TO CONCLUDE – Pogba is, without a doubt, a supremely talented footballing individual. His personal stats are fairly impressive, and at his best he can be wonderful to watch. However, if the question is ‘Keep or Get Rid of Pogba?’ then the statistics all point towards one answer.
Whether it’s lack of effort or compatibility, Pogba has never, and still does not, work at Manchester United. Across all metrics, they are better without him, and this is made more troubling by the fact that he seems to be even more detrimental to them on the European stage.
All in all, given that United have been universally more potent going forward, more solid defensively, and more successful in general without Pogba over the last 4 years – the stats would suggest that it’s about time that the World Cup winner seeks pastures new.
If you've gotten this far, thanks so much for reading! These take a lot of time and effort to put together - so any likes, retweets, follows or general feedback are massively appreciated, and help to get my work out there!
