Read on Twitter
Listening to a panel discussion on Boston's Green Line Extension with @mattyglesias @alon_levy @ericgoldwyn @elifensari; I'll tweet any interesting points
So far Alon is just giving a summary of worldwide construction cost patterns, pointing out that lower construction costs = more construction (comparing low-cost Spain and high-cost Germany)
Eric talking now. Green Line extension is first of six planned case studies, chosen as an example of extremely high costs. Three focus areas: 1) project management, 2) design, 3) politics
History: GLX plans go back to 1920s; construction was ordered by a court in 1990s for environmental mitigation. Original 2011 completion date was pushed back due to disinterest from GOP governor
GLX used untested "CMGC" model where general contractors are brought on to give design feedback before construction. Idea is to get all parties on the same page; it didn't work out - produced unrealistic cost estimates
MA later canceled CMGC contract and reprocured GLX as design-build
Project management: only six full-time MBTA employees in 2011-12 managing GLX. Large amounts of sunk costs by 2016 went to consultants, little to construction
Design: North America commonly has overbuilt stations. GLX budgeted $400m/7 stations; original concept budgeted only ~$500k per station. Stations bloated into "iconic neighborhood centerpieces" with exorbitant costs for electricity, concrete, steel
Example of political bloat: "Community path" (extension of suburban bike/trail path to Boston) introduced to GLX in 2012 after design work finished; required wider, more expensive retaining walls. Communities protested when MBTA considered eliminating it
Elif is talking about Istanbul. Construction is very challenging: earthquake zone, large bodies of water, concerns about historic preservation and archaeology
Istanbul has rapid construction: average ~6.5 months to complete 1 km of subway. Construction market is heavily competitive, relying mostly on local consultants and contractors
I missed a few details, but IIUC, Istanbul has streamlined negotiations of contract changes and relies on itemized costs. If there are cost overruns, the original contractor finishes part of the line with 120% of the first budget and another contractor is brought in to finish
Health, safety, and environmental regulations are less burdensome in Turkey than in US/EU
Yglesias pointing out that existing Green Line stations (including in fancy areas like Brookline) are "essentially bus shelters" for short light rail vehicles - how did GLX stations get reconceptualized as expensive and bloated?
Goldwyn: 2006 accessibility lawsuit forced MBTA to add elevators to existing stations. Public meetings on station design also got very high turnout; it's incumbent on MBTA to say no. (E.g. consultants spent 6-9 months studying a tunnel for GLX in response to public feedback)
Alon (answering question from Matt): large differences in political structures don't correspond to cost differences, e.g. unitary France (Grand Paris Express is a state project) vs. federal Germany (Berlin plans its own subway extensions)
Alon: overdesign of stations in US predates modern fire safety regulations (e.g. full-length mezzanines in IND in New York in 1920s-30s became a national standard)
Eric: deep stations require more space for fire safety because escalator evacuations are slower
FTA looks just at local matches for funding, doesn't scrutinize project quality further
