There’s no playbook for $TSLA over the next 8 days. Investing is like artificial intelligence (AI): You come equipped with principles, formulas, etc, but the edge is experience. When you encounter a situation, AI kicks in and says here’s the right move. But there’s no precedent.

2/ No one knows what the $TSLA supply/demand balance will be next week. Indexers have to buy 120M shares. But we don’t know how many shares will be offered by sellers who have bought up and inventoried TSLA shares since Nov 16 for the express purpose of exploiting that demand.

3/ $TSLA superbulls keep arguing demand will peak 12/18. Based on past S&P inclusions, that’s true. But quantity supplied decides. The $1.3T equity long/short world exists for trades like this. If fewer than 120M shares are supplied next week, TSLA squeezes. If >120M, TSLA falls.

4/ The wild card may be $8T in active mgd’d funds to be bm’d to S&P 500 who may have bought up $TSLA in front of indexers. If they’ve been the buyers, bulls will be right since they won’t sell. If the buyers have been hedge funds looking for a profit, peak selling could be 12/18.

5/ If $TSLA completes its $5B secondary by Friday, they will have wisely avoided the fray. I have never seen a 60% move b/t S&P anncmn’t and inclusion. But no stock has entered the S&P this big or with 32 days lead time. As a trader, I will take money off the table before 12/18.

6/ After 12/21, $TSLA could retrace 10-20% of S&P move, with a $520 floor. After 4Q vols 1/4 (181K vs 173K Est), TSLA could rebound sharply, as investors anticipate good 4Q results ($1.08 vs $.92 Est), strong FY’21 vol guide (840K vs 775K Est), and new Biden-led EV incentives.