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NEW TOPIC: coffee in Minas Gerais, Brazil
Minas Gerais is the biggest coffee-producing state in the world’s biggest coffee-producing country, accounting for around half of Brazil's coffee. How might climate change impact production?
(photo: Rodrigo Flores, Unsplash)
Minas Gerais is the biggest coffee-producing state in the world’s biggest coffee-producing country, accounting for around half of Brazil's coffee. How might climate change impact production?
(photo: Rodrigo Flores, Unsplash)
In 2014, Minas Gerais experienced a rare drought in January which surprised producers and caused a surge in global coffee prices. According to NOAA, it was the hottest January on record for parts of SE Brazil. https://www.reuters.com/article/brazil-coffee-drought/brazils-coffee-belt-grapples-with-rare-threat-dry-heat-idUSL2N0LH0DZ20140212
This attribution assessment found “limited support” for the suggestion that climate change was a major factor in the drought. The impact of the drought does however demonstrate the significance of the region to the global coffee market. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/96/12/bams-d-15-00120.1.xml
The literature suggests Southeast Brazil's suitability for coffee production will decline under climate change.
This recent study found coffee yields in Brazil have already declined due to climatic trends since 1974. It flags Minas Gerais as facing the greatest risk from declining production due to a combination of high hazard, exposure and vulnerability.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aba471
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aba471
Other studies find Minas Gerais is projected to become less suitable for coffee production under climate change. Under a worst case high emissions scenario, the most suitable areas would be restricted to higher elevations by end of century https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1236-z
See map for full details: https://www.climatenode.org/map.html . ClimateNode compiles information but does not claim scientific expertise. Let us know if our scientific understanding of this topic could be improved: [email protected]
