He’s ignoring a key point: It was too big a win this time to pull off a cheat. Had it been by one state and 5,000 votes this might have come out differently. The court won’t touch it because it wouldn’t shift anything. They can’t overturn three states won by 40,000 votes. https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1336429446178480129

Next time the voter suppression might be enough to get it within the margin that it could shift things and they may weigh in. They are keeping their powder dry to maintain the court’s legitimacy. They won’t waste it now.

Give them four years and a more acceptable authoritarian candidate and we might have a different outcome. When it’s no longer right after a confirmation battle that made them look bad. When Court packing isn’t being discussed.This is accepting what is inevitable in a way to gain.

Also, next time when it’s a win by one state a legislature might try and derail the outcome. Or next time we might not have a reasonably honest Secretary of State in Georgia.

Is it just me or do a lot of numbers folks ignore contingency after the fact when it’s not about numbers. He’s great at it before an event at pointing out many things are possible. But afterwards, he’s like “see that was bound to happen.”

Yes, Democracy was strong enough to survive this time, it appears, but it was dangerously close and any number of individuals could have shifted things and muddied the waters enough. And the remaining bulwarks and norms are being eroded by the GOP as we speak.

To me, the issue isn’t 2020 as much as it is 2024. The GOP doesn’t just play a short game. What happens when the authoritarian is more competent and the individuals who stood in the way aren’t there anymore.