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The U.S. approach to export controls needs a revamp. I explain why in my latest.
Thread: (1/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Thread: (1/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
First, some trends to bear in mind: 
is no longer the global R&D juggernaut. Tech know-how is more diffused, opening up alternative tech acquisition pathways.
(2/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
is no longer the global R&D juggernaut. Tech know-how is more diffused, opening up alternative tech acquisition pathways.(2/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Also, 
is a near-peer in many technology areas.
Opportunities for effective export controls are growing scarcer.
(3/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
is a near-peer in many technology areas.Opportunities for effective export controls are growing scarcer.
(3/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Implication 1: Applying export controls with inadequate consideration of these shifts means amplifying unintended consequences that can cause lasting damage to U.S. firms and industries.
(4/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
(4/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Implication 2: Erecting avoidable hurdles to tech cooperation with allies and partners.
(5/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
(5/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Unintended consequences of export controls:
1. Eroding US company competitiveness
2. Avoiding US-origin items
3. Capitalizing on US export controls
4. Posing barriers to joint R&D
5. Accelerating foreign tech indigenization
6. Generating uncertainty for US companies
(6/10)
1. Eroding US company competitiveness
2. Avoiding US-origin items
3. Capitalizing on US export controls
4. Posing barriers to joint R&D
5. Accelerating foreign tech indigenization
6. Generating uncertainty for US companies
(6/10)
Tenets for successful export controls in the current context:
Tenet 1: Work with allies. Export controls in most cases will require coordination with and participation of one or more allied and partner countries.
(7/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Tenet 1: Work with allies. Export controls in most cases will require coordination with and participation of one or more allied and partner countries.
(7/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Tenet 2: Raise the threshold. Export controls should be applied first and foremost as a strategic imperative to promote and preserve an edge in technological competitiveness, not as a tactic to achieve concessions.
(8/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
(8/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Tenet 3: Reframe the goal. Export controls are not an end in and of themselves. They need to be crafted as part of an overarching national strategy for technology and a broader economic statecraft strategy, not as scattershot policy actions.
(9/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
(9/10) https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/rethinking-export-controls-unintended-consequences-and-the-new-technological-landscape
Big thank you to @RosenbergEliz and Kevin Wolf for sharing their expertise. Their feedback was tremendously valuable. And the @cnasdc pubs and comms teams were fantastic as always.
(10/10)
(10/10)
