$cris Press release oncology care - A mini thread
cc: @oncology_bg @VPrasadMDMPH
1. Curis released its preliminary data on CA-4948 Monotherapy in Patients with Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndromes Dose escalation

2. If possible get a read out on efficacy : " any biologic activity, pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic findings from the study trial population"
Two cohorts
a.3 or more patients getting 200 mg Bid
b. 3 or more patients getting 300 g BID

Result reported for 7 patients

3. Of 7, one dropped out. Attrition ? 15%

Of six, marrow blast "reduction" in all. How much? Don't know.

But wait!!!!
One patient went from 23% to 1%
Second patient went from 11% to 2%

What about the rest ? DONT ASK!!

4. No dose limiting toxicity at 200 and 300mg. Plan to test 400 mg.

Why 400 mg? Hope for higher response.

But Wait!!!
At 400 mg we are going to introduce grade 3 and 4 Rhabdomylosis ( muscle wasting ) and work on some kidney damage

5. Coming back to the study:
This is a open label with observations noted in 2- patients!!!! Lets us call the observation a MAJOR BREAK THROUGH!!

How major ? The stock goes up 400% Cheers

6. $cris So coming back to the six patients with "reduction" but only data for two patients is shared. Why? There is a good reason. When you are using monotherpy vs a glass of water as your control, you better see some positive change. But what if you don't?

7. $cris If no chance significant change then your drug is useless! So better to only show data that supports your hypothesis. Why? Because the rest is not helping your case.

YESTERDAY, Curis also presented data for CA-4948 in Relapsed or Refractory Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma

8. In that study they reported the following:
CA-4948 consistently reduced tumor burden at the recommended Phase 2 dose of 300 mg twice daily.
Range from 6-67% AFTER ABOUT 2 YEARS of therapy.

9. These are the different NHL subtypes and the reduction noted at various doses
It is interestig that the highlighted subtype Waldenstorm macroglobuinemia had 67% reduction at 50 mg and 6% at 400 mg. Well nice DOSE RESPONSE!

10. But over the 2 YEAR preiod how do the 6 patients do ?
No changes in 5 patients. ONLY ONE PATIENT IS DRIVING THE CHANGE !!!

Hence it is a good idea to talk about only one patient and ignore the rest. Becase they are showing no reduction or an increase !!!!

10. $cris
I love the equity markets and how stupid they are! Free money is always easy togamble with

The company is selling it shares to the wall St sharks are $5.75!!! And not a small amount 25.6 million shares!
They had 33.8 million shares outstanding.

11. $cris
They had 33.8 million shares outstanding and are selling almost half the company at $5.75. HALF OF THE COMPANY!!!
Where are shares trading $8 . The buyers are dumb as a rock!!

12. A question- $cris

If some one wants to sell you a product for $5.75, how much should you pay for it ?

13. $cris
For a product being offered at $5.75 with a massive supply of 25.4 million units , if someone pays $8 per unit , what should you call this phenomenon

14. $cris
The story of a successful drug company in the making since 2002.
$100 invested in 2002 guaranteed depreciate to $1 until Monday and now $ 7 today.
What is better a 99% loss or a 93% loss over 20 years?

15. $cris Another funfact.
Since 2002 shares price went from >$100 to $1 until Monday!!
What about share count?
Since 2010,
It went from 14 mil to 33 mill in 2019!!!

WHAT ABOUT 2020? ADD ANOTHER 48 MILLION TO IT .
Share count today - 82MILLION after the raise !